In short, this is a turn-around opportunity and not a true value play (current P/E is ~70... however the fwd P/E is ~9 and PEG is below 1). IMO, Texas has a strong economy relative to many other states and will recover quicker than others.
I'm very familiar with their "Stripes" convenience stores. They're very clean and well run. They're about 50% finished with a rebranding from "Town & Country" started a few years back. I believe their rebranding has been a success because I distinctly remember when they did it and thinking it was an excellent change. They also feature "Red Box" movies which my wife and I frequent for the $1 movies.
I found this stock in a screen earlier this month. On Monday (4/5/10) S&P's Fair value estimate jumped to ~$16 from around ~$13. Their Q1 2010 earnings report comes out next month and will give tell of a potential strong recovery in Texas.
I believe this stock is near rock bottom. There is strong support at the to 50 day MA of 8.56. The 52 week low is 8.11 and any movement below would indicate irrational selling and be a bad sign IMO.
whitestar...should be the first "pop" in what should be a sustained run in the near term. Q1 report is critical to determine if the worst is behind SUSS (from an economic perspective). SUSS has a very small float and lower than average trading volume so if you were paying attention over the last several weeks you would have seen this move coming IMO. It's been under accumulation the last several weeks IMO. Capable of moving up quickly...we shall see...
largemarsh, I've been following this stock for a few weeks. I tripled my position when I watched S&P's "proprietary" fair value estimate jump by 20% on Monday. IMO when that happens 'they' see/know something that I don't and could indicate some institutional accumulation coming.
Yes, the earnings will dictate the pace of SUSS's recovery. If Q1 2010 is the Q they beat estimates, I don't know. I have no doubt they will eventually beat estimates and recover strongly. Their "Stripes" stores are excellent! SUSS is a solid generationally owned company that is weathering a recession. It's just a matter of time.
Also, I strongly believe in the Texas economy. We were one of the last to feel the recession, and IMO we will be one of the first to recover... clearly just my opinion.