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  • pkmiami4 pkmiami4 May 12, 2011 4:24 PM Flag

    I don't see why this would surge

    Don't worry, your puts will still be worth a few cents tomorrow.

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    • I'm not worried. They should be worth pretty close to what I paid for them, right near the end of the day. Maybe a small loss, maybe a small gain.

      I took a shot, it was worth it. In fact, the market reaction proves that my reasoning was sound, in that the trade's advantage relied on the upside risk being minimal, because even on a 15% beat it wouldn't move up. In fact, it looks very likely that it will finish the AH session with the day's gains coughed up. Had they met expectations, we'd probably be at around 19 now, and if they had missed by 2-3 cents, I bet it would be below 17. So, right idea, but I didn't win this one.

      • 1 Reply to hedgehog25
      • Well, gee, I guess I was wrong....I DID win this one. :)

        I made this trade because I thought that if they met expectations or missed, the stock would crash and near term puts would go through the roof, but at .22 EPS I figured it would probably hold close to 20, give or take two bits. It's still overvalued, but I would have thought that the cachet of an earnings beat and moderately positive guidance would keep it from collapsing.

        Sentiment: Well, I'm not complaining...

 
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