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NVIDIA Corporation Message Board

  • kvimax1 kvimax1 Apr 3, 2013 2:09 PM Flag

    Can't resist!

    With the stock now trading at virtually 2 times CASH, I couldn't resist and just added to my position at 12.05. The market cap, ex-cash, is not 75-80% of sales, and with a company that has the patent assets, growth prospects and cash flow from INTC guaranteed for several more years, this stock is STUPID cheap.

    As I said, last night, IF we somehow go below 11, I'll add more, and IF it somehow goes to a new low, especially if that's because of North Korea, I will double my stake.

    Anyone short calls at 13 or 14 beyond April should seriously consider covering them and waiting for a higher premium and not risk being taken out at a price below 13.50. JMHO.

    As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • what got posted by the pumpber boyz on this thread was murderous, it probably killed a whole lot of people. People who knows anything about semis would have died laughing. Birdie from mars for example.

      These are desperate days at nvda - pc slumping, intel catching up with graphics that nvda is relegated to games and not even high end, beyond 1080 is nowhere in sight, last but not least, $1B spent targeting Tegras at a totally closed segment of the market.

      Very desperate times at nvda indeed. I guess hence all the absurdities by the pumper boyz.

      How do you model the Tegras!

    • Excellent timing, sir!

      • 1 Reply to ashraf.eassa
      • Well, we'll see. However, this was the second Friday in a row where the stock had over 5mm shares in The Final Hour (and virtually doubling the day's volume up to that point), and all to the upside. Whether it is shorts covering or smart money accumulating, there's no way to tell.

        We closed the week 1 cent below the 50DMA, with MUCH higher than average volume, and unless the markets collapse this coming week, I think we'll reclaim the 200DMA, which is now around 12.73. I do believe that the next time we approach 13, we will power through that level, then 13 1/8, and then, IF the volume gets to 15-20mm shares, the stock "should" explode to the upside. And, I think there's virtually NO resistance from that level to at least 15, and IF we get through 15, 20-25 would be the target.

        I think I've suggested that this set up is remarkably simliar to the one in early 2011, and IF that's the case, one or two pieces of "news" will be the catalyst. And, of course, if QCOM makes a move at AMD (which really IS AMD's ONLY chance), then all the barriers to someone coming after NVDA fall to the wayside. Now, I do NOT want to see NVDA taken over, UNLESS it were INTC buying in order to get Jen Hsun to become the CEO of the combined company. (And, I doubt he'd agree to a price below at least 25.) He would NOT leave NVDA to be the CEO of INTC, since NVDA is HIS "baby" and I'm sure he believes it has a much brighter future than INTC does, other than if they were to join forces. If they did that...well...good luck to ANYONE else, including QCOM, AAPL or even Samsung to compete with them.

        To sum up, I have a very strong feeling that something IS "in the wind" and it is coming soon. What it is, I can't be sure. Whether it's the next Kindle or something bigger; the previous run at 13 and these last 2 Fridays' huge volume in The Final Hour, and the action in some of the options are telling ME to be ready for a MAJOR move higher.

        As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Well, well, well...I saw today's open, and saw the "test" of 12.04-05, and then had to leave. Then, after driving 5 hours to my mother's, I saw the stock moving higher with virtually EVERY other tech/semi DOWN. Later, I saw the turn in ARMH but almost nothing else.

      I DO think that some "other people" noticed what I had noticed, i.e. that there looked to be a "floor" at that level, and most likely it WAS The Company deciding that trading at 2 Times Cash was ABSURD and wouldn't allow it to drop any further. Once others started to realize this, some of the "smarter" shorts began to cover.

      As I've tried to emphasize, The Final Hour is the key. And, we had just over 7mm shares at 3PM, and the stock was near its high of the day, so far, at 12.30-31. At 3:30, we had 8.188mm and we were at a NEW HOD at 12.34-5. 8.85mm at 3:40, 12.41-42, and now 13.75mm and a close at THE HOD, 12.46, although that volume includes a block of 1.5mm in the after market down 1.5 cents.

      All-in-all I'll take it, and I'm glad I "figured out" there just might be a specific "floor" and added to my stake.

      Down for the week, but a beautiful reversal on stronger volume is fine by me. I still have a "feeling" that some kind of announcement is coming.

      I still strongly "suggest" that anyone short ANY calls at 13 or 14 from May on out think about covering.

      As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • if a CPU company can't drive up, the same happens to a GPU producer as well. GTX has to uses 2 fans to cool it down for 1080p display. I can't imagine how this product could get out a desktop box. or may I ask for a break through over that?

    • Appreciate your enthusiasm, but I think if this stock somehow goes below 12, not even 11, the company will have failed to follow through on their commitment to the buyback program and will alienate many of the retail investors. IMO, the stock shouldn't go below $12 unless their are circumstances in the macroenvironment that brings everyone stock down at once, ie North Korea or more unrest in another euro nation that needs bailout money.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to roundhouse_c
      • Just a little factoid from the 4th quarter 100M Accelerated Stock Buyback. After the contract which was let on 11/29 and the insuing settlement with Nvidia's investment bank on 1/24 8.4M shares were cumulative delivered to Nvidia for an average share price of $11.94. It's a tricky business trying to determine what and when Nvidia is buying back shares...i.e. if they are in the market everyday or if they a working an accelerated buyback which as you know must include a huge profit for the investment bank or they won't enter in to it.

        Bottom line.....What are you doing Nvidia and why don't you just speak up!

      • Yes, I totally agree with you. And, it wouldn't surprise ME if that 2 times cash number was the "threshold" for the buyback to make a "stand" as it were. So, like I said, other than an exogenous event like that WACKO in North Korea, I just don't see it happening. Hence, I couldn't resist adding at that level. It "should" be a "floor".

        As always, we'll know in the fullness of time.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

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