Intel Forecast May Miss on Dimming Outlook for PC Rebound, says Raymond James Email Print
Barrons, July 2
Writes Hans Mosesmann:
""Much has been made about Intel’s new microarchitecture Haswell as the long-awaited catalyst for the much-maligned PC market. While unit sales should improve modestly from Haswell (all else equal), we believe the Street is missing the dynamic that Intel’s Haswell has an initial focus on higher-end products where Intel is already dominant and is subsequently only replacing its legacy products.
Consumers (and subsequently OEMs) have become increasingly cost conscious with regards to PC purchases, and we believe the sweet spot for PCs will continue to move lower into the $400-600 range. At these levels, we believe a product lineup from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (without supply issues for this iteration) will participate between the high-end focus of Haswell and Intel’s low-end Atom. Thus, we believe the long awaited “rebound” in PCs may be a bigger driver of AMD share gains, while Intel (with ~85% PC market share) will likely be at the whim of the overall market. On that front, we continue to believe that both management’s guidance (calling for low single-digit growth in 2013) and consensus (flat year-over-year) are too aggressive.
Putting consensus in context, if we assume that Intel can grow its data center business ~13% in 2013 (in line with its forecast of double-digit growth) while its other non-PC client segments grow 3% y/y (in line with company guidance of low single-digit growth), we arrive at an implied PC Client sales decline of 4% in y/y in 2013. Given our belief that PC units will continue to shift to the lower price points (generating share gains for AMD and ASP pressure across the board), this looks aggressive and we suspect a decline in the mid- to high single digits is more realistic.""
Mosesmann models revenue this year of $52.18 billion and EPS of $1.70, down from a prior $53.68 billion and $1.85. That EPS estimate is below the Street consensus of $1.86 this year.
"At these levels, we believe a product lineup from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) (without supply issues for this iteration) will participate between the high-end focus of Haswell and Intel’s low-end Atom. Thus, we believe the long awaited “rebound” in PCs may be a bigger driver of AMD share gains"
This article is pounding the table for AMD and the only thing you clowns want to argue about is
how hard did he slap Intel.
Pay attention, even Jen said on the last conf. call that Nvidia's market share is tied to Intel's share
and that Nvidia would be expected to LOSE share if AMD gains share.
Since we all know there is litle need for an Nvidia anything with an AMD solution.
Now if you can read and you know what Jen said then you know this is bad news for Intel and Nvidia. lol
So for the Nvidia pumper who put the article up to bash Intel and the Intel pumper who disputes it,
who cares who will hurt the most Intel or Nvidia.
If you can read the only WINNER in this article is AMD!
"Given our belief that PC units will continue to shift to the lower price points (generating share gains for AMD and ASP pressure across the board)"
He;s still a fruitcake after all these years if he thinks AMD have any products that can take any marketshare off Intel lol ! ;-)
More Mosesmann fantasies ....
News from August 2011
Hans Mosesmann, Raymond James: Reiterates a Strong Buy recommendation and a $40 price target. Mosesmann thinks sales of Tegra rose “modestly” in the quarter, as strength in tablet computing were offset by “mixed” results in smartphones. “The net is that NVIDIA’s performance goes a long way in dispelling major bear themes such as lower GPU attach-rates, market share losses, weak design-win traction for Tegra, weak PC demand, and massive accumulation of inventories. The issue and thus opportunity for longer term investors is that as we look down the road to high volume computing from handsets to supercomputers, Nvidia is in an extremely strong position. Interestingly none of the traditional handset chip players even have strategies for this game.”
Let's just keep the focus on Intel and, specifically, on the article Hans Mosesmann written yesterday and quoted here.
Hans was saying that the first wave of Haswell based products tend to be high-end offerings, likely replacing the existing high-end products in a market already dominated by Intel. This corroborated what I stated earlier that the upcoming Intel processors would do more to cannibalize its own than to take market shares from others.
The demographic trend for the PC market seems to be migrating toward the lower-end, priced in the $500 range, which works in AMD's favor. To help massage Intel's (and followers) ego, it says nothing about AMD'a offerings being technically superior to Intel'a. The focus of his evaluation is on the "sweet spot" of the market - which happens to be NOT where Intel is heading for, at least in the near and intermediate f