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Pan American Silver Corp. Message Board

  • crazy1090631 crazy1090631 May 11, 2012 11:49 AM Flag

    forget paas, buy pvg, ag, exk, svm

    and gdxj. Just my opinion, but these will do better than paas.

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    • no. It is a wrong opinion.
      PAAS is probably the best option to play silver long term.
      In my personal opinion it is the least expensive silver producer in the world.
      Cheaper than all those you mentioned and allowing big players to buy most shares without influencing the price much. Silver market is very small and buyer has to think about that.

      Silver seems like a bad idea currently and the whole sector is being beaten up hard.
      But I think silver is the only reasonable play for retirement accounts right now.
      I think portfolio managers are a herd making stupid things and now they think it's time to scrap silver investments. That's why the whole sector acts like PAAS and PAAS is probably the worst of them all.

      But that is a significant mistake.
      Silver is money and during depression the only firms getting loans were gold and silver miners.
      They were the only stocks to play and that was so long ago - nobody remembers because these folks are all dead now.

      This time is coming rapidly. We may be months away from that time. PAAS might fall down to 13 - but in a long run silver and silver stocks will be winners above EVERYTHING ELSE on a planet.

      As for the arguments - raising currency stock:
      http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CURRENCY?cid=25

      This is the money in our pockets - that has the strongest influence on food and energy inflation.

      Then Trade Balance:
      http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOPGSTB?cid=125

      which is negative for years.

      Then China slowing down on dollar purchasing:
      http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/mfh.txt

      But the final piece of the puzzle comes from BIS data that shows 2 things - first there is a very significant buildup in dollar deposits abroad - currently a little bellow 6% quarterly - which in itself is an absolutely horrifying figure, because it NEVER EVER rose like that.
      The total amount of that is circa 2243 billions of dollars. With the current FED policy of swaps and the actual trade deficit of 50 billions per month - we are closer to a currency crisis than anyone thinks possible.

      Then the second information from BIS is the derivatives play in silver - which indirectly points to a very large demand in silver derivatives (10.5 billion dollars notional over a span of 6 months)- much exceeding the physical market capability to deliver. Obviously there is naked short selling there to counter that. The data is not very recent though. All in all - we are getting close to the point when market analysts and Cramers of the world will not matter at all and they will not be able to stop this. It is just a matter of time - months maybe.
      At that point the whole investing world will fall apart and silver companies will shine.

 
PAAS
14.69May 23 4:00 PMEDT