Navidad is WELL known and priced in. Pretty much any news on Navidad would be good. Nothing yet. One of these days Chubut will wise up and cut a reasonable deal/law. Until then PAAS will work on improving/expanding Dolores and is hopefully in the hunt for another asset to keep increasing their production like the market wants. In the meantime, working capital (pile of cash/credit line) increases to $784M. Holy cow!
The after market finally moved. PAAS down 3.4% on VERY light volume at the moment. People shooting from the hip based on EPS, I presume. I'm with WarmCamp: real reaction won't be until after the conference call. I don't trust after market too much, anyway. We'll see!
It could do anything, but no, I don't see 10-15% down. That's what ABX & NEM got hit for (over the last couple days), but I don't see PAAS having the kind of issues they had. I'm not super familiar with those miners, but ABX had mining delays, a $500M cost increase, and a "large falloff in production" from one of their mines. I'm not sure the details on NEM, but looks like they also had production shortfalls and talked about negative cash flow through next year (due to investing in new mines).
PAAS doesn't seem to have those issues. Comparing EPS to 2011 isn't realistic because gold & silver prices were much higher a year ago and costs were lower. Everyone knows the prices of gold & silver, so that should have been baked in. Who knows how the market reacts, but since they reaffirmed their full-year guidance, the market *shouldn't* have a cow. I will be buying Dec & Jan calls and selling Jan puts if it does, however. I strongly suspect that gold/silver prices will be nicely higher in a couple months!