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Roche Holding AG Message Board

  • mo_scuba mo_scuba Apr 26, 2009 12:48 PM Flag

    Compare Flue opportunity to Bayer during anthrax

    A look at events and price return of Bayer, maker of Cipro, during the anthrax scare.

    ANTHRAX HISTORY:

    EVENTS:
    September 17-18, 2001: First Wave of Anthrax Attacks Targets ABC, NBC, CBS, New York Post, and National Enquirer.

    [New York Times, 9/26/2001], New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd, “Americans are now confronted with the specter of terrorists in crop dusters..Women I know in New York and Washington… share information on which pharmacies still have Cipro, Zithromax and Doxycycline, all antibiotics that can be used for anthrax, the way they once traded tips on designer shoe bargains.”

    October 18, 2001: As Anthrax Fears Mount, Canada Overrides Bayer’s Patent for Cipro; US Does Not

    October 21, 2001: Bayer Reduces Price of Anthrax Antibiotic Cipro for US Government Only, Refuses to Allow Imports or Generics

    October 23, 2001: Numerous Experts: Plentiful Supply of Effective Anti-Anthrax Alternatives to Cipro; FDA Only Recommends Cipro

    BAYER STOCK INFO: base valuation date is 9/10/01
    9/17/01 Bayer stock down 10%, S&P500 down 4%
    9/21/01 Bayer down cumulative 30% (Friday)
    9/24/01 Bayer up 17% (Monday)
    10/12/01 Bayer jumps 11% (no data as to why) Cumulative return since 9/10/01 = 13%, S&P500 = 1%
    10/19/01 Bayer down 2% after Canada's patent decision, S&P 0% change.

    Between 9/10/01 and 10/31/01 Bayer cumulative return = -3%, S&P -2%

    Bayer performance starting the "big pop" date of 9/24/01
    Date / Bayer / S&P500
    9/24/01 / +17% / +4%
    9/25/01 / -4% / +1%
    9/26/01 / +5% / -1%
    9/27/01 / +3% / +2%
    9/28/01 / -5% / 0%
    Cumulative / +25% / +8%

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