Well, you really get wondered that ECU silver at discounted price were bought and all the progress and the money spent to get the mine going the way it has and yet the stock price is less than what the the cobmined value should be.
310 m ECU + 200 M AUMN= 510-550 M minimum value. Do market makers know something we don't?
Taking into account stock price performance, your $15 take on it is probably most realistic a scenario. That it's worth over $30 per share when compared to other healthy producing mines (in the junior arena of good companies, in ground silver equivalent is valued over $4 in NAV, average), you do have to take into account the technical state of the stock and what markets bear. Whatever the case, don't see who's going to part with enough shares at less than around $15 for this company to be acquired, your take probably spot on. On the other hand, this stock has been the victim of a short attack, the downside distorted by manipulation, so I don't think you can take current share prices as normative, even in the general junior mines decline these months, that is, this $6-$7 or so base price phoney baloney, out of whack, and there's no telling that the big shareholders won't consider it being lowballed, even at $15. We'll see.
You're right. People on these boards don't really know how to value a mining stock in terms of enterprise value, in situ total resources, etc. You see all sorts of weird comments, like another post saying how the market makers must know something about AUMN. Clearly, this person doesn't know what a market maker is, how they could care less the resource value of this stock or any such thing about any stock: they are there to provide liquidity and try to make a buck on the spread, that's it. Still, you have people talking about market makers as if they are zeroing in on exploitation of some company fundamentals, involved in some deep conspiracy against their stock picks, which is just out in left field. I hate to say it, but we all know it, who know anything: there is soooooo much ignorance on these message boards. A lot of these people shouldn't even be investing. Go look at any dog mining stock, or whatever dog stock, and you'll find people in love with those stocks, histories and balance sheets from hell, some of which are, clearly, outright stock floating scams. But try to tell these people this, the truth, even backup what you say with hard data, still, you're the evil short, or a "paid basher", some sort of bogeyman, picking on them. Brings to mind:
"Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." Albert Einstein
Anyway, if one were to take into account AUMN's latest presentation and a total resource base of 492.9 million Ag ounce equivalents in the ground, then consider silver worth $30, and that the company is only worth 8% of that (using conservative rule of thumb metrics for a producing mining company), the share value is actually north of $30 per share: you are correct, easily over $1 billion.
550-600 would probably be minimum..
That would be 1 usd per silver eq oz golden minerals have.
Don't think shareholders would accept any lower
ECU had a market cap of 1 billion, and that was before AUMNs mining and milling expertise.
I'm very calm with my investment, I hope you are too.
If I were a big mining co. like NEM, ABX, or even GG, etc.. I would add juniors like AUMN, EXK, AAU, BRD...to my portfolio at these price levels. They are really in need of growth and exproperiation of cheap juniors is the easiest way to get to thier goals.
what about 500 million for AUMN? sound reasonable?