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Golden Minerals Company Message Board

  • claybridge_00 claybridge_00 Apr 21, 2013 11:29 AM Flag

    How much would a Mining Co. pay for Golden Minerals?

    How much would a Mining Co. pay for Golden Minerals?

    I'll admit that I'm relatively naive when it comes to valuations. Entertain me a bit if you know more than me (good chance of that). Let's give it a shot:

    Cash (as of 12/2012) $44 Mil
    Annual Revenue (2012) $26 Mil
    Property portfolio (???)

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    • Oooops. Let's try this again:

      How much would a Mining Co. pay for Golden Minerals?

      I'll admit that I'm relatively naive when it comes to valuations. Entertain me a bit if you know more than me (good chance of that). Let's give it a shot:

      Cash (as of 12/2012) $44 Mil.
      Annual Revenue (2012) $26 Mil.
      Property portfolio (???) $300 Mil.
      Equipment (???) $20 Mil.
      Premium/Other (???) $20 Mil.

      Purchase price = $410 Mil/43 Mil shares = $9.5/share

      Granted...they probably have less cash now...but production will be increasing. Help me with these figures if you have time. Golden Minerals is going to be bought-up very soon. The bigs will just wait a few more quarters...as Golden Minerals uses up some cash and increases production...then make an offer at get a steal. Probably not $9.5/share given current PM prices...probably in the range of $6-8/share...which I know a lot of people won't be happy with. But...if you think this valuation has any truth to it...we're talking at least a 4-bagger from the current price/share. Just sayin'...

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • From the asset side: add $5 for property sale to cash, but they are burning through $2M in cash a month, so subtract $8M from cash. That leaves $1 per share in cash at April 30th. Book value of non-cash assets is 5.60/share (properties, equipment, remaining goodwill). Total book is around $6.60 per share, so at 1.2 times book call it $8 a share. I'd be happy with $6.

 
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