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TransMontaigne, Inc. (TMG) Message Board

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  • rrb1981 rrb1981 Feb 12, 2006 7:41 PM Flag

    Earnings Release

    Well, I own a boatload of XTXI and think it will do very well over the next 18 months to 2 years. They have already publicly stated they are pushing for a $3.00 dividend by end of 2006. I have posted some very extensive analysis on the message board. I think they can push the dividend to $5.50 area, maybe $6.00 over the next 2 or 3 years if they go ahead with some of the projects that they have announced they are evaluating. If you put a 3% to 3.5% yield on that(as most GP's trade at around a 3-3.5% yield) you get a price around $180. I think XTXI is going to split pretty soon, so the corrected price would be $90. The Barnett Shale expansion, the North and South LIG expansions, etc should allow them to really kick the growth into high gear. Enough about them, after all his is the TMG board.

    MWP remains the ultimate question mark. If management were trustworthy and competant, it would be a screaming buy, but Semple and Ivey are both slick as car salesmen(no offense to any car salemen) and they both have a horrible history of business non-successes (Semple bankrupted Wiltel, Ivey helped nearly BK Williams). Both of them are working on the good ole boy system. Semple got hired by Markwest, then hired some of his former Williams cronies like Young and Ivey, and then they even brought Keith Bailey onto the BoD. Yikes. Good assets and growth ahead, but if Semple can't renegotiate those awful keep-whole contracts then MWP's marketing division is a blackhole and I want nothing to do with a money burning division.

    Pretty much all of the pure GP's have good prospects but are getting expensive. MGG, AHGP (soon to IPO), EPE, ETE, NRGP, plus the others that are not pure GP's KMI, OKE, UGI, ATLS(until the spinoff) and PVA all have good prospects.

    CPNO is a great company with great prospects. I expect at least 35% growth in the distribution over the next year, probably 50%. They like to be conservative.

    TMG is on of those companies, that it takes them a long time to get things rolling. They really missed the boat in terms of IPOing an MLP. They entered the game about 3 years to late. They have a lot of competition and they are still in the low splits, meaning they have a lot of deals to make in order to get into the high splits, and big deals are harder to come by. Fortunately they can stair step their MLP with their own assets because they didn't put them all in at once.

 

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