I'm going to say at this point (the 10K being filed...which they paid 470K for a months worth of work) it's
a 95% probability it will open on the NYSE at some point. That's up from about 30% before last week (the 10K being filed changed the odds dramatically since that is the reason they were being kicked off the exchange).
So the exchange is pretty much set, but the time frame is up for grabs. It could still be as long as 6 months, but my bet says it opens within 30 days (and the internal investigation results are released).
The really good news is while this has been halted the company has being moving forwarding at a brisk pace (40%) and generating tons of money (50M last year). At this point the numbers are almost unrecognizable from when it was halted....and they still have two quarters to post to get up to speed.
I'm sure before it opens the company will release updates so we all know where we stand in regards to value.
It would not be fair to shareholders to open this up without those updates. How are you suppose to value something when you're looking at 6 month old numbers (Q4 2013).
I think your analysis is on target. Always the skeptic, I'd lower the retaining NYSE listing to 85% (assuming internal report and 1Q report are available for preview to NYSE). Yes, the 10K makes a huge difference, I agree.