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Tidewater Inc. Message Board

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    • Subj: Cars are faster soon they will find
      out
      By: manboking
      Date: 6/16/99 9:57
      pm

      "...ultimately Bloomberg does not own one share of TDW. Just
      wait till the Chinese park their bikes and find out
      that cars are faster."


      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      NOTE

    • There really are some good quality postings here.
      There appears to be a very good understanding of the
      industry dynamics which are more important at this time
      than stock market fundamentals. I am into TDW for the
      long term and like most of you do not see day rates
      improving in the short term. I would expect earnings to
      continue to decrease over the next year unless of course
      TDW are able to consolidate the market considerably.
      Some talk of rising gas demand in the US may have some
      effect on day rates towards the early part of next year
      however there is an over supply of vessels that need to
      be worked out of the system.

    • long time , no see. Welcome back to the TDW board.

    • With the Market nearing the top and PEs at all
      time highs, one must find stocks that is undervalued
      and still growing very fast.

      Jan-Bell is such
      a company -
      JBM retails fine jewelry and Rolex
      watches like Tiffany & Company. However, JBM is growing
      at 60-70%, much faster than it's peers like Gucci
      and TIF.

      What's more Jan-Bell has been buying
      back aggressively, $15 million stock buyback at the
      current price is equivalent to 1/3 it's
      float!

      Next year JBM is projected to make at least $.69 per
      share, giving it a PE of 4 and a book value of $5.77 at
      the current price.

      JBM is also selling very
      well over the internet through VUSA, ShopNow.com, IMAL
      and JBM's Mayor's
      division:

      http://www.mayorsauction.com

    • In this industry, the stock price drops about 9
      months to 12 months prior to the peak in earnings and
      the stock price will begin to rise 9 to 12 months
      prior to the recovery. If you wait for the actual
      reversal in earnings you will miss most of the rise.


      This stock hit its high in October 1997 and declined
      from that point. But earnings continued to rise for 3
      quarters after that.

      The high point in the stock is
      not at the same time as the high point in earnings.
      And the low point in the stock isnt at the low point
      in the earnings.

      TDW has the "Potential"
      with its existing fleet and capital structure, to earn
      over $5.00 per share when the oil market fully
      recovers, assuming it gets back to the conditions 2 years
      ago.

      TDW peaked at over $70 in late 1997.

    • you're right; we probably do have different
      philosophies. I could go on for a bit about the demonstrated
      track record of contrarian investing, but I'll save
      that for another time.

      I will say that if you
      want to buy low and sell high, you first have to be
      ready to buy when prices are low. But aren't prices low
      particularly because the "consensus" about the company is
      bad?? Otherwise, the price wouldn't be low. So when I
      see a company like TDW that is this cheap, is a
      leader in its industry and is a dominant player in its
      market, is continuing to make money despite dreadful
      market conditions, and has the financial strength of
      TDW, I'm "all over it" (as my daughter would put
      it).

      In these types of situations, maybe the stock
      doesn't go anywhere for awhile, but often it does. In
      general, the stock begins rallying before there is any
      real apparent reason, or when the change in prospects
      still seeems ephemeral. When it is clear that the
      company's prospects have changed, you can easily have
      missed out on 50% or more of price rise in a short term
      - that initial turnaround is often the fastest and
      most dramatic part of the share price
      recovery.

      So when I identify a situation such as TDW I move in
      and take a position. BTW, I opened my current
      position in TDW Feb 9 - I'm up 35% already, and I think
      we've only just begun.

    • I do have detailed knowledge of the industry and
      that's why it's hard for me to understand. TDW is a very
      well managed company and obviously the cream of the
      crop of OSV operators. I have great expectations for
      the stock and for the company.

      I guess my
      investment philosophy is a bit different than yours. TDW is
      certainly a value at today's price but I can not see tying
      up my money waiting on the twelve-month lag in OSV
      rates v price per bbl of oil to drive the earnings back
      to early 1998 levels. I do plan to buy TDW, but
      later this year. Perhaps I will leave some money on the
      table. Perhaps I won't.

    • I think the items you mentioned were already
      recognized and reflected in the share price - so that's
      shrugged off. What is more to the point - for a contrarian
      investor - is that if little is expected of a stock, there
      is great opportunity to exceed expectations.
      Conversely, a high flier of whom much is expected, has much
      greater room to fall below expectations.

      TDW is a
      great, contrarian value play. There is a strong
      likelihood that there may be something good news in the
      offing - I leave that speculation to the board
      contributors who have detailed knowledge of the industry.

    • Go Figure!

    • nearly a year!
      Although I'm still in red, but pretty happy to see TDW is recognized!
      GO TDW for all longs!
      Airways

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TDW
19.71-0.23(-1.15%)3:27 PMEDT