There is a lot to think about for investors right now, including those thinking of entering these pps points. I am not an expert but did take the time to talk to the CFO back when the alleged buyer walked away from the company. In retrospect is seems that that potential buyer walked because they some how intuited that there was a glitch in the first trials for the urinary conduit.
First) the company is involved in tweaking their clinical procedures on these trials and have gone back to the fda and will not enroll until they get permission to change the operating procedure that ensures blood supply. These are top surgeons in their field and I believe they will get the go ahead.
Second) I think Nichtberger got the boot. This may be part of a move to prepare the company to be sold. He has lost credibility with the major shareholders as well. If you listen to his talk just 3 days before the buyout fiasco he is either misleading or ignorant of what is going to happen. You choose.
Three) Delisting. Of course some people worry about delisting but when you put that into a topic, unsubstantiated, that is trying to create fear for whatever reason. No one is talking about delisting except a few posters. You have some major medical investors in this company and the conditions for delisting at these low share volumes and prices can be avoided quite easily. In other words keep the share price above $1 and with the millions that they have invested already, this makes sense for them.
Four) The kidney augmentation trials that they hope to initiate next year may be huge. The idea of being able to delay the beginning of dialysis for five years holds much greater financial potential compared to the current creation of Urinary conduits (though these endeavors are of course important to those who have lost their bladders and are using the current primitive systems of urine removal. But they have a long road to travel on both fronts.
Five) The patient population that is currently being targeted for the urinary conduit are by the very nature of bladder removal, in tough shape... having suffered through cancer or other major trauma. This will always be a difficult population to take through trials without any setbacks.
I could go on for quite a while about this company but perhaps people posting on this board need to do a little more than look at the pps every day. I know it is difficult but if you have any specific questions, write an email to Tengion and ask to talk to someone off the record and you may gain access like I did earlier in the year.
These prices may or may not be a good entrance point but they are down here for a reason right now. If the company proceeds with their plans and their institutional buyers stick with them, this company will be around for a while and the price can only go up. The science is great, though extremely difficult and I expect setbacks along the way... I am just hoping that the institutional and medical company investors stick by Tengion. time will tell.
good luck to all involved and of course I am hoping for either a buyout or some positive events, just like most of you are!
good post but I have to disagree with #3. I'm not trying to create fear--I don't own the stock yet--considering buying and asking what are the rules on delisting. I went through this before years ago--I invested about $10,000 in a biotech firm that was working on a cure for baldness--in other words--good investors, potentially break through product. The company, however, went below a $1 on the NAsdaq and was delisted and to this day I don't think traded again. It is a reasonable fear as once delisted investors will have difficulty exisiting as there is no mechanism of a publc exchange to exit.
The fact there are major medical investors is no guarantee it wont' be delisted--why didn't they keep it above $2 or $1.50?
You could probably answer your own question if you thought about it for a moment.
If you are a large investor intent on keeping the stock on the exchange, would you support the stock at $2 or would you wait until your investment could be made at $1, gaining twice the amount of shares in the process, much easier to defend as most of the investors had already made up their minds and the air is out of the balloon with more and more people entering the stock as it heads down (for every seller there has to be a buyer).
If you really think that this stock is going below a buck and that the science or potential of this stock is not worth its market cap, take a look around for a few weeks non stop at other small pharmas and then make a decision. Lots of small pharmas go through a cycle of steps forward and backward..
Vertex for instance with a few set backs here and there kept partnering up and raising funds through small issuances of shares (dilutions) but the longs have made out like bandits, I am one of them. Their Market Cap before final FDA approval on their hep C drug, 12 billion dollars, share price 55 but I had to hold for seven years. Targacept, down to this price on a failed trial, made a few changes, next trial succesful, two years later $20 a share.
Lots and lots of choices out there in some exciting small pharma stocks like ACTC, ZLCS, AEZS from 20 cents to a few bucks. Don't try to predict the unpredictable, but check out the science and just go with it. However I don't suggest going to sites where you are not invested and say watch below, delisting, reverse split, or any of that nonsense, unless the street and analysts are talking about it, you will just be taken for a basher or shorter. imnho..
good luck to the rest of us here, I hope that the science and management pulls the company through this one...
In light of adverse events in the neo conduit trail and the adverse events the neo bladder augment trail (http://www.tengion.com/pdfs/200904_Joseph_AUA_poster.pdf) is there a pattern forming here? Is there a flaw with the science behind the products? Tengion only has funds till next spring. Even if there are no more adverse events it will be years before they can get the conduit to market and much longer for the kidney. My thought is that instead of a company purchasing Tengion they may just wait until they are out of money and purchase the technology for much less.
good points, but I have to disagree with #4. neo-kidney is interesting but public biotech companies rarely get credit for pre-clinical science projects. they may get credit in terms of IP and scientific know-how if a buyout ever comes, but that's a big 'if'.
NUC is also very far away from fda approval, and its success in trials is definitely not assured. and I think there's a good chance the FDA will require the company to re-do some animal studies before starting up again in humans.
if you want to buy the stock today, you have to be willing to take the risk of round after round of highly dilutive financing.
Redoing animal studies??? You are the first person to suggest that and with three human patients underway and being carefully monitored, there is no need to use an animal study to change a surgery technique for ensuring blood supply. Going back to animal studies are common with lack of data or adverse effects with pharmaceutical products, not in a trial like this.
You need to tie that idea to a source, a real source, because I watch and listen to this stock carefully and that is totally coming from left field, which of course makes me wonder about it... but not too much because this is only the yahoo mb... my last post on this subject for a while, everyone keep their eyes open, a falling stock draws all sorts of folks to it, hoping for a carcass to make a few cents on so you will probably hear all sorts of things.
On the other hand, the company will be disseminating real information, good or bad, I suspect in the coming months and we will see how the street values this new science... there are plenty of little pharmas out there with bigger market caps and much less to say for themselves so no use thinking too much about it. good luck.