Very simple caculation, if you spend 30 bil, how many years you want get back all the money? 15 years ie very reasonable. so far at current p/e, expect more than 100 years. Overvalue is obivious.Some analysts argue that ebay is fast growth tech. Did anyone remember those prediction was used for AOL, amzn, ebay? What happens today? Star AOL almost disappeared, if we exclude time warner's hard assets. Do you still believe those analysts? of course not. If you bought amzn, yhoo, ebay at high, did you make money in 4 years? No , not at all. What is the lesson in this 4 years? don't buy high, not matter what analyst tells you buy high. Do you really think ebay can go to 300 bil? I am hoping that, but I know it is impossible. This auction site has no difference from others. I sold something in ebay. So I know it is not a good place to buy, but a good place to sell. If ebay customers finally figureed out what I said is true, then the end of ebay is near. currently, a lot of hyper in e-mail told everybody that you can make $2000 one day in ebay, that is why ebay has such good revenue. I am sure this hypers can be short lived, so does ebay. I have at least two friends quit ebay sale recently, because their profit was not expected. So I expect ebay growth rate already slowed. Like AOL, ebay's death toll is not far away.
The rehashed cliche theory. When you start hearing the same ol' cliches about "greater Fool Theory" and others, time to buy. Why? Because as it's repeated over and over, it gains more followers and no longer holds true when the list of followers is too long.