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  • bobgiamarco bobgiamarco Sep 10, 2009 12:28 PM Flag

    Gina re: NLY

    Interesting trade James.

    So you bet over $581,000 for 3 possible outcomes:

    1. 3 weeks - $5k .8% upside
    2. 7 weeks - $25K 4.3% upside
    3. Shares tank below $16 if not assigned - 5% probability if no unexpected -ve event arises

    My only concern is commercial RE loans default is increasing and next leg of resetting of ARMs.

    Then again I don't know the quality NYL of portfolio of asset backed securities. Even if they are solid, there is always investor confidence risk which can bring down the entire sector down if something unexpected happens.

    Wish you luck James.

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