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eBay Inc. Message Board

  • Noofnoof Noofnoof Oct 1, 1998 11:03 AM Flag

    IPO hoarding

    The fact that the IPO's such as Ebay are
    unavailable to the small investor is another example of just
    how the rich get richer. I've been a registered ebay
    user for about the past year or so and knew for
    certain that the IPO would skyrocket. I wanted to buy in
    but my DLJ account didn't have $100k in it so I was
    left out with the rest of the small frye. I have
    confidence that ebay will remain profitable as it's a
    virtually trouble-free site that continues to make sense
    for buyers and sellers. But, I will not buy into the
    frenzy and pay 3x the IPO amount. If and when the stock
    comes back down to earth, in the twenties, then I will
    purchase a piece.
    Note:Ebay gives thanks to its
    registered users who helped make it what it is today. What I
    can't understand is why they didn't help make their
    longtime users what they'd like to be tomorrow by holding
    out a few shares that could have been made available
    to them. I suppose no one ever promised a "fair
    world".

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    • K Mart rumored to be bought out. Check the volume.

    • Bubble price paths typically rise out of simple
      rational expectations models, once those models recognize
      that people invest for capital gain as well as
      dividends (or earnings or some other fundamental measure).
      The rough intuition is the old 'self-fulfilling
      prophecy' sage. The problem with those models is that they
      are silent as to when bubbles might burst, or exactly
      what kinds of bubbles will persist (there are dozens
      of kinds of bubbles). Investing in bubbles is
      rational within those models (i.e the strategy has a
      positive expected payoff), but there is a positive
      probability of a 'bursting'.

      That does not mean that
      bubbles are efficient if your definition of efficient is
      that price equals future discounted risk adjusted cash
      flows. But if efficient means that the expected risk
      adjusted discounted total return (including capital gain)
      to bubbles is zero, then bubbles are indeed
      efficient. An important implication of that fact is that the
      faster a bubble grows, the higher is its probability of
      bursting.

      There is a lot of confusion about the semantics of
      'efficient' out there.

    • VodooNowReadsWealthOfNations VodooNowReadsWealthOfNations Jun 18, 1999 11:41 AM Flag

      Bought that Boxter yet?

    • I could really use them.

    • VodooNowReadsWealthOfNations VodooNowReadsWealthOfNations Jun 18, 1999 11:29 AM Flag

      You can buy them on eBay.

    • Man, this is some very deep stuff to ponder in
      the earlier hours of a Friday morning.

      I'm not
      sure about Black but isn't Dr. Scholes that guy who
      invented pads to help prevent corns and calluses? ;-)

    • Due to popular delusion, there is no reality in
      the stock market for internet plays and this
      distortion has existed for some time (after all, reality is
      only perception). Once the popular delusion is proven
      to be only a delusion and mere fantasy, reality will
      make a come back. And, its return will be very harsh
      indeed.

      Right now, there are many who believe that internet
      plays are not governed by the laws of economics and
      business. Personally, I would rather buy a profitable
      bricks and mortar company which is adding an internet
      sales component than buy an internet only company.


      No matter what the outcome of the internet
      component, a profitable bricks and mortar outfit already
      knows how to make money. And what if in the next year
      or so it is proven that internet only companies
      produce operating margins no greater than bricks and
      mortar outfits? What happens to those 2,000 PE multiples
      then? After all, internet companies are nothing more
      than catalog sellers and classified ad printers. And
      who's to say that operating an internet site isn't more
      expensive per revenue dollar than printing and mailing
      catalogs or selling out of a store?

    • Fortune wrote that in order to justify the
      current price, the company would have to beat Walmart
      revenue by 60% by the year 2009! Yeah right ... dream on
      longs. Remember, that is just to justify the P/E right
      now! Also said that ebay should consider spending its
      money on new software architecture & system redudancy,
      rather than upgrading it's auction content. The article
      was written just before the most recent crash - good
      call Fortune. Bad call longs!

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