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eBay Inc. (EBAY) Message Board

  • tppt99 tppt99 Feb 18, 1999 9:08 AM Flag

    ALMI NEWS!!!...undervalued internet play

    check out this undervalued internet
    stock...ALMI...going up bigtime released today...more
    coming soon...get in under $6.00...undervalued internet
    play...Solomon Smith Barney retained for internet will rocket!!!


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    • I have just deemed Ebay the ultimate strongest
      buy. I believe this not only cancels American Internet
      Who? but gives the shorts a serious wedgie, if they
      care about the downgrade in the first place.

      (Like the "Who Cares Enterprises" & "Fly by Night
      Servers, Inc." response.)

      Adding two more countries
      is the big news, short stuff.

    • Gees, I can see the shareholders heading for the exits on that one...not. American Internet Shopping, a subsidiary of Who Cares Enterprises, a product of Fly by Night Servers, Inc.

    • amazon fan how do you respond to this

      r_resendes writes:

      "Bad news: E-bay has been
      downgraded from its prior 3star rating to 2stars by America
      Internet Shopping under the Auctions
      category. gets 3 star rating."

      this is very good news for us shorts.

    • and your reasonings, I'll buy eBay ~$200; eBay's
      model is excellent: scalable, no inventory, low cost.
      Nobody dispute that. We might assuming a perfect growth
      from here, everything must be executed perfectly. If
      ebay makes any bad news (e.g., fraud control,
      competition, "ebay is always down when I bid..."), it will
      drop 50% right from here!

      If you believe 30%
      Q2Q sequential growth in the next 12 Qs, and P/E of
      100 in 2001, then eBay will trade at 460 3 yrs from
      now. Today's $200+ is justified as fair value based on
      the above assumption. Buying @ 235+, you have a
      chance to double your share price, and that comes w/ a
      50% downside risk. For a new company in a new biz, a
      50% correction is likely as well, i.e., you might see
      eBay trading 50% off @ 120 if any bad news hits (like
      tech correction in last Oct). It's too difficult to
      value eBay. I'll conclude that $150-$250 as fair price
      for eBay assuming no extreme good/bad news coming
      out. $100 buy, $300 sell in the next 3 months. I'll do
      nothing now until eBay moves outside the $150-$250 range.

    • You have to realize that dotcomcancer doesn't
      have a brain. It's a long story, but he's only here to
      try to disrupt this message board with negative EBAY
      hype (he's not very good at that, either) and get the
      attention he never got from mommy as a child. That being
      said, why bother communicating with him? He's like a
      paid lobbyist. He has an agenda which doesn't include
      logic, listening to anyone who disagrees with his
      ramblings, or being rational. But, I suppose you can try.

    • First, do you really think that the CFO would
      come out and say that they are ultimately a 50%
      operating margin business? He'd be shot for setting
      standards way too high. Underpromise and overdeliver is the
      name of game here -- beating expectation and
      triggering a wave of euphoria to drive up your stock price,
      capitalizing on results not already priced into

      Now, let's think about eBay's business model. They did
      85% gross margins last quarter. My guess is that it
      could be a lot higher, but they MUST be investing for
      future growth by buying more hardware and taking a
      higher depreciation expense. Also, if we grant 30%
      sequential growth each quarter, do you really think that
      they can spend as fast as their revenues grow? This
      business model has SCALE tattooed all over it.

      for whether or not I believe that eBay can pump $10 B
      or $20 B through it -- remember, it's not whether I
      believe that eBay can do it or whether eBay's member's
      can do it. Consumer to consumer is a powerful model
      -- with each new member, the value of eBay grows for
      everyone. And take a look at what's actually being sold now
      over eBay: it's just about comic books and furbies

      The power of eBay is there. It's business model is
      the best that I've ever seen.

    • Even EBay CFO claims that the op margin going out
      will be no
      more than 30%. And the revenues as %age
      of gross merchandise
      sales are under 5%, more
      like 2-3%.

      Look at ONSL CEO Kaplan's interview
      on Motley Fool
      for a take on expected margins in
      e-commerce - very thin.
      If EBAY gets greedy and tries to
      take too much, folks
      will just go to the free

      Finally, EBAY actually has 50M fully diluted,
      into account new ESOP ... SO ...

      With $20
      BILLION in gross merchandise sales, EBAY
      will have
      revenues of $1 billion or less. 30% op margin
      will be
      $300 million or less, net around $200 million
      less. Divided by 50M shares, gives you $4/share -
      maybe (a lot) less.
      IF this happens, then EBAY is
      worth a healthy $120/share.

      So, you think EBAY
      can channel $20 BILLION in gross
      merchandise sales
      in 3-4 years? At a hefty margin to boot?
      Then buy
      when EBAY falls to $120 (pre-split).

    • 6% completion fee is a mix of the actual transaction fee plus all the listing fees that they get. This number has actually held at 6% for the past few quarters.

    • Let's grant that Dell_Bear is correct in that
      eBay earns $4.59 in 2001, which he derives by assuming
      30% sequential growth.

      Now, $4.59 is based on
      pre-split 40 M shares, or $1.53 on post-split 120 M shares.
      eBay in the end will be a 50%+ operating margin
      business. (c'mon it's cost of goods sold can't be much more
      than a couple of giant computers

      So, $4.59 x 40 Million shares is $183 M in net
      income. At a 30% net margin (50% operating margin and 40%
      tax rate), that means eBay needs to get $610 M in
      revenues. $610 M in revenues at an average of 6% completion
      fee for each item sold is $10 Billion in gross
      merchandise sales. Not entirely unreasonably as eBay did $307
      Million of gross merchandise sales in Q4 alone.

      don't know how the hell you got that $7.8 Trillion
      number. If anything, you should learn to count places and
      realize that you really got $7.8 Billion.

      actually trade these stocks and make

      By: dotcomcancer
      Date: Feb 18 1999 7:23PM EST

      Think of the margin of this company and how many
      people will have to auction stuff for
      fleabay to
      achieve the gross revenue needed to product earnings of
      4.59 in 2001. There
      will be 120,000,000 shares
      outstanding x 4.59 net equals 550,800,000 net divided by
      margin equals $7.8 trillion in sales. These are
      post split numbers, Pre split would be 1/3 of
      or $2.6 trillion in sales.

      Go back to the
      drawing board.

    • You damn right it will be down to $100 share. I'm
      short, along with Michael Murphy and everyone else that
      has done the numbers. Facts are facts are facts! year
      2000 est. show about 55 cents per share.....That's a
      655 PE if it is supposed to hit the $360 the way GS
      said it would. I say give it a PE of about 65 forward
      looking (very, very, liberal!) and your looking at $36.
      If your short, cash out between $40 - $45. Post
      split your looking at $15. Any long that wants to give
      this stock a PE above 100 needs to give me a very,
      very good long explanation on where the hell you
      studied economics. This thing has been hyped & hyped and
      blown so far out of proportion that it will be talked
      about in future publications as the biggest rip off in
      wall streets history.


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