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eBay Inc. Message Board

  • cyberswimmer68 cyberswimmer68 Jun 8, 1999 9:58 AM Flag

    A little cautious

    Well the nets certainly did get that "one day
    pop�on Friday, which I said Thursday might may happen.
    The question is�what now? Wow is that a tough one. My
    take on the sector is that it desperately wants a big
    rebound run, but will the Street
    allow it? Here is my
    thinking�If the overall market tone firms up and there is
    strength in the Techs�the nets will participate. But I
    think that even if we get a nice run, it won't be quite
    the same as past internet runs have been. The
    analysts are still a bit leery of the nets because of weak
    or non existent
    earnings. So be careful here but
    nibbling on some of the best ones should reward you. CMGI
    has earnings coming out soon and could spark some
    buying there, DCLK is getting a lot of contracts and
    looks good, MSPG has a split coming and is fairly cheap
    now so it is a buy, BYND got a lot of attention over
    their government contract and should be good for a
    while, ABOV is "cheap" here, CNET and GNET have a lot of
    ground to make up, LCOS has filed to triple the number
    of shares
    outstanding, PSIX is still the purest
    net play of all, and ELNK is extremely attractive at
    59 bucks.

    One last note here� AOL, YHOO,
    and AMZN don't look like they have the same strength
    they used to have, because of the earnings problems at
    AMZN, the bandwidth problems
    at AOL, and the
    concern over future revenues at YHOO. Be cautious until
    this feeling
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    • I meant it.

      Iomega at least produced
      products that is protected by
      licenses and patents,
      what did Ebay got?

      The question I always asked
      before I put my money into a stock, is, What do they
      sell? Would I buy something like that, and, How is the
      product affect the ways of life?

      Ebay surely has
      changed our ways of buying and selling, but only limit to
      junks, outdated, one of a kind products(including
      collectible). In another word, Ebay is a swap meet in a
      national scale. Ebay makes a commission(some 6%) by doing

      What stopping others to enter the Auction business?
      None other than lots of cash(for advertisment, not for

      What Ebay has done wrong is to
      concentrate on develope/expand the core business, instead of
      using the highly valued stock to
      buyout other
      companies(like global crossing does). And now, it might be a bit
      too late. That is because the insiders are so eagerly
      holding to their shares of the stock since IPO.

      Just wait 'til the day investors/insiders start
      dumping their stocks, and it will make the Iomega tale
      look a lot better.

    • There are two ways to make money from holding a
      stock: (1) dividends (2) capital gain. Fundamental
      analysis can really only hope to price the former. There
      is simply no reason to expect fundmaental analysis
      to capure things that go into price appreciation,
      because such things depend on investor sentiment,
      bubbles, voodoo, and god knows what else.

      fundamental analysis can really only give you a price floor.
      If your one who thinks the fundamental value of Ebay
      is low then (1) I agree with you, and (2) your only
      prediction should be that Ebay won't fall below that price.

      If technical analysists think they can predict the
      whims of the market, then more power to them - but I
      have never seen convincing evidence.

    • VodooNowReadsWealthOfNations VodooNowReadsWealthOfNations Jun 9, 1999 12:20 PM Flag

      thoughtful answers to the question I posed last
      night. Unfortunately I am running sick right now (a bad
      feever brought by a friend all the way from Caracas), so
      I won't be as active as normally in my postings -
      I'll go home, and get some sleep, and be a little

      I do enjoy though how people come right back at you
      when you ask. Including HP! (Did you by that Boxter
      yet, HP?)

      Signing off for today...

      >>I hope to god the agency's are
      monitoring this.
      >> (Not your god, Poo!)

      Oh, pooh pooh! I've already told you that Ebay is
      unstoppable, and many have read the warning signs of the
      coming financial apocalypse when the harbinger of the
      antichrist will be realized fully against the Ebay short
      sellers. This day of great woe is dawning, at the end of
      this year, when Ebay will remain the only stock still
      standing and Ebay, Inc. shall be the global supercompany
      the whole world will turn to for financial salvation.
      In that great day, no person will be able to buy or
      sell except that he have an internet connection to

      Doubt Ebay no longer! Repent of financial blasphemy,
      and put your fiscal faith in Ebay!

      As I just
      heard on the ART BELL radio show
      ( "how did you live before Ebay?" Good question!

    • >>...I cannot sell everything I own and
      follow Ebay.

      You don't have to sell everything,
      just your other stocks. Of course, you can keep other
      stocks, but you must really concentrate on buying as much
      Ebay as you can afford.

      If you do consider
      liquidating personal belongings, why not start auctioning
      them off on Ebay? Ebay can change your life, you may
      suddenly be the owner of a personal auction business, and
      gain money to buy Ebay stock which is guaranteed to
      give you untold riches.

    • a lower $ priced stock (i.e., a $14 stock v. $100
      stock) has less risk than a stock with a higher stock
      price. an example that comes to mind is Berkshire
      Hathaway's class A shares. this stock has less risk than an
      EBAY or a Yahoo.

    • Very good post but I don't think you can save these fools they still havn't figured out You can buy a good $14 stock that goes to $19 and it's the same as 140 to 190 with less risk.

    • I can see why you didn't have the mental stamina
      to read all of my post. I mean after all, it must
      have been at least ten sentences long, probably more!.
      I can't even imagine how investors can actually
      read all the sentences in a 10-Q. So many big words,
      and all those graphs too. Oops, gotta go. Don't want
      to miss Geraldo! He's great. He always tells me what
      to think, so I don't even have to think for myself!
      What's your favorite TV show?

    • fell asleep on your post

    • EBay is not the first bubble stock, and it won't
      be the last. There is nothing miraculous about the
      fact that the fundamentals seem to be denied in a
      bubble stock. As seasoned market veterans know, the
      surest sign that self-delusion is reaching a crescendo
      in a bubble stock is when the players start saying,
      "but this time is different!" I remember the big
      Iomega bubble. Everyone thought growth was unbounded
      with Zip drives replacing floppies and yes, folks,
      even China came into the story. But of course,
      eventually reality brought the stock to its knees and a lot
      of naive investors lost a lot of money. So when will
      the fundamentals take hold? No one can say for sure,
      but there usually is some precipatating event that
      shatters the myth. In EBay's case all it will take is for
      growth to slow a little bit. As soon as investors
      realize the exponential growth promised by the hypsters
      is not a reality, then the illusion will be
      shattered. I can't tell you when, but I can say that the
      growth necessary to justify the current valuation is not
      possible, and eventually this will show up in the numbers.
      Once disappointment is in the air, this stock will
      tumble hard and fast. History repeats. I sleep very,
      very well at night with my short position in EBay.

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24.36+0.24(+1.00%)May 27 4:00 PMEDT