Well the nets certainly did get that "one day
pop�on Friday, which I said Thursday might may happen.
The question is�what now? Wow is that a tough one. My
take on the sector is that it desperately wants a big
rebound run, but will the Street
allow it? Here is my
thinking�If the overall market tone firms up and there is
strength in the Techs�the nets will participate. But I
think that even if we get a nice run, it won't be quite
the same as past internet runs have been. The
analysts are still a bit leery of the nets because of weak
or non existent
earnings. So be careful here but
nibbling on some of the best ones should reward you. CMGI
has earnings coming out soon and could spark some
buying there, DCLK is getting a lot of contracts and
looks good, MSPG has a split coming and is fairly cheap
now so it is a buy, BYND got a lot of attention over
their government contract and should be good for a
while, ABOV is "cheap" here, CNET and GNET have a lot of
ground to make up, LCOS has filed to triple the number
outstanding, PSIX is still the purest
net play of all, and ELNK is extremely attractive at
One last note here� AOL, YHOO,
and AMZN don't look like they have the same strength
they used to have, because of the earnings problems at
AMZN, the bandwidth problems
at AOL, and the
concern over future revenues at YHOO. Be cautious until
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I meant it.
Iomega at least produced
products that is protected by
licenses and patents,
what did Ebay got?
The question I always asked
before I put my money into a stock, is, What do they
sell? Would I buy something like that, and, How is the
product affect the ways of life?
Ebay surely has
changed our ways of buying and selling, but only limit to
junks, outdated, one of a kind products(including
collectible). In another word, Ebay is a swap meet in a
national scale. Ebay makes a commission(some 6%) by doing
What stopping others to enter the Auction business?
None other than lots of cash(for advertisment, not for
What Ebay has done wrong is to
concentrate on develope/expand the core business, instead of
using the highly valued stock to
companies(like global crossing does). And now, it might be a bit
too late. That is because the insiders are so eagerly
holding to their shares of the stock since IPO.
Just wait 'til the day investors/insiders start
dumping their stocks, and it will make the Iomega tale
look a lot better.
There are two ways to make money from holding a
stock: (1) dividends (2) capital gain. Fundamental
analysis can really only hope to price the former. There
is simply no reason to expect fundmaental analysis
to capure things that go into price appreciation,
because such things depend on investor sentiment,
bubbles, voodoo, and god knows what else.
fundamental analysis can really only give you a price floor.
If your one who thinks the fundamental value of Ebay
is low then (1) I agree with you, and (2) your only
prediction should be that Ebay won't fall below that price.
If technical analysists think they can predict the
whims of the market, then more power to them - but I
have never seen convincing evidence.
thoughtful answers to the question I posed last
night. Unfortunately I am running sick right now (a bad
feever brought by a friend all the way from Caracas), so
I won't be as active as normally in my postings -
I'll go home, and get some sleep, and be a little
I do enjoy though how people come right back at you
when you ask. Including HP! (Did you by that Boxter
Signing off for today...
>>WHY DOES THIS THING NOT TANK, LIKE IT
>>I hope to god the agency's are
>> (Not your god, Poo!)
Oh, pooh pooh! I've already told you that Ebay is
unstoppable, and many have read the warning signs of the
coming financial apocalypse when the harbinger of the
antichrist will be realized fully against the Ebay short
sellers. This day of great woe is dawning, at the end of
this year, when Ebay will remain the only stock still
standing and Ebay, Inc. shall be the global supercompany
the whole world will turn to for financial salvation.
In that great day, no person will be able to buy or
sell except that he have an internet connection to
Doubt Ebay no longer! Repent of financial blasphemy,
and put your fiscal faith in Ebay!
As I just
heard on the ART BELL radio show
(http://www.artbell.com) "how did you live before Ebay?" Good question!
>>...I cannot sell everything I own and
You don't have to sell everything,
just your other stocks. Of course, you can keep other
stocks, but you must really concentrate on buying as much
Ebay as you can afford.
If you do consider
liquidating personal belongings, why not start auctioning
them off on Ebay? Ebay can change your life, you may
suddenly be the owner of a personal auction business, and
gain money to buy Ebay stock which is guaranteed to
give you untold riches.
a lower $ priced stock (i.e., a $14 stock v. $100
stock) has less risk than a stock with a higher stock
price. an example that comes to mind is Berkshire
Hathaway's class A shares. this stock has less risk than an
EBAY or a Yahoo.
I can see why you didn't have the mental stamina
to read all of my post. I mean after all, it must
have been at least ten sentences long, probably more!.
I can't even imagine how investors can actually
read all the sentences in a 10-Q. So many big words,
and all those graphs too. Oops, gotta go. Don't want
to miss Geraldo! He's great. He always tells me what
to think, so I don't even have to think for myself!
What's your favorite TV show?
EBay is not the first bubble stock, and it won't
be the last. There is nothing miraculous about the
fact that the fundamentals seem to be denied in a
bubble stock. As seasoned market veterans know, the
surest sign that self-delusion is reaching a crescendo
in a bubble stock is when the players start saying,
"but this time is different!" I remember the big
Iomega bubble. Everyone thought growth was unbounded
with Zip drives replacing floppies and yes, folks,
even China came into the story. But of course,
eventually reality brought the stock to its knees and a lot
of naive investors lost a lot of money. So when will
the fundamentals take hold? No one can say for sure,
but there usually is some precipatating event that
shatters the myth. In EBay's case all it will take is for
growth to slow a little bit. As soon as investors
realize the exponential growth promised by the hypsters
is not a reality, then the illusion will be
shattered. I can't tell you when, but I can say that the
growth necessary to justify the current valuation is not
possible, and eventually this will show up in the numbers.
Once disappointment is in the air, this stock will
tumble hard and fast. History repeats. I sleep very,
very well at night with my short position in EBay.