Added to Watch List (Thomas Weisel).
FIGURE! What do these guys know that the shorts do
ans. They know that they have just taken a massive
long position at these levels and are waiting to ride
this EBABY into the stratosphere this summer!
Q2 is not an historically bang-up quarter for
retailers (and I fit ebay into that category because the
ultimate transaction is buying and selling of merchandise
from consumer to consumer). If they have a good
quarter, it should at best equate to Q1 which was $5.9
million. Ebay stated that the downtime debacle would cost
them approximately $4 - $5 million in revenue. Given
the fact that this downtime didn't save them any
money, that $4 - $5 million should go straight to the
bottom line. Furthermore, there were more than likely
additional costs associated with this downtime: overtime,
contract labor, additional hardware, etc... Not even
factoring this in, the earnings this quarter's earnings
should be in the $1.0 - $2.0 million range. That's
between $0.01/share and $0.02/share which is $0.04 -
$0.05 below expectations or 67% - 83% below
expectations. Considering this stock is trading at
extraordinarily high P/E ratio's, you fill in the blanks on what
would happen. The smart play would be to let the
inevitable pre-earnings runup occur, then short this baby on
the earnings release date. This is simply my own
opinion based on the information we have available to us.
What are your thoughts? I'm looking at a price of
about $50/share by the end of July. Which will still be
overpriced, but should bring it back down to earth. By the
way, the purchase of the German site which should be a
drag on earnings was not even factored in. Don't get
me wrong, I think ebay is a great company, it's not
a pile of junk like so many other shorts run around
touting. It's just a company with a stock price that's
entirely overpriced. Ebay will not give up market share as
long as they continue to keep their pricing structure
the same and don't try to get too cute on adding
components. The more they add, the more different they become
from themselves which is not what got them to the
popularity levels of today. If this stock is more in line
with the proper valuation, I'm a comfortable long term
player. But, I think $136 per share is a price that this
stock shouldn't see until 10 years from now. Anything
above $25 per share is a pure ponzi scheme ($25 per
share is more than 4 times the value of this stock in
less than a year so that might even be a little high.
Think about it. If you bought IBM today, would you
expect it to be at $500 per share in 9 months?)
I covered most of my positions in ebay on Friday.
I post here to give a different perspective on the
market and life.
The stock market is a high risk
game and I'm just trying to learn how to play it with
now emotion etc. and live by TRYING to avoid the 7
deadly sins of life and its amazing how they apply to
My true love is real estate. They are making new
IPO's every day but they are not making anymore real
estate. I'll probably end up back in what I think I
David from LOOSERville
It was rational and made sense I challenge the
longs to write a piece like it in defense of Ebay. Oh
by the way , fuck you shorts , Ebay forever, Go
ebay, die scumbag shorts, and Ebay will bury you , does
not count as writting.
life, everything comes back at you. And that esp.
I am trying to be polite here and I
keep getting called a retard.
I wish we could
all express our views like adults and have respect
for each other.
My best wishes to all and
thanks to all for the kind words.
WHY 49 out of the 64 internet ipo's are down in
the biggest bull market in history?
state that their earnings will be down with the
purchase of the German company. I was stating exactly what
was in the article.
We are all guessing what
will happen and so many of you here act like you know
Pride is the most deadly sin of all
and I am trying to work on that one.
I did a
study for a business class in 1980 and projected oil
prices to be at $100 in the year 2000. My teacher
explained to me how that could never happen and I thought
he was dead wrong.
Well we know what they are
today. At that time it I would have given 100-1 odds it
couldnt be below 20 now. BASIC ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS.
That is what I was taught and i'll go with those wise
teachers I had.
Can you tell me of one stock that
has sold for a PE of 2000 plus and kept soaring?
Maybe Microsoft??? any others????? That is a tech stock
and ebay is only a 2 bit auction site that will have
to sell everything in the future just to
I firmly believe in the future of the internet but
I dont believe in voodoo economics. Tell me how
EBAY can make huge profits in the future and I'll go
long on Monday.
Every year the Wall Street
Journal take the monkeys against the pros and the monkeys
ussually win picking stocks.
Time will tell the