I don't own EBAY, but I think it will recover a
good chunk of its losses (maybe to the 155 level)
sometime by X-Mas. Whenever there's indiscriminate selling
in a sector it's a tell-tale sign of panic
overcoming greed. The KOOPs, KTELs, MPPPs may linger and
die, but the AOLs, YHOOs and EBAYs will prosper over
the long-term. It's true that an over-supply is
hurting net stocks now, but interest rate concerns,
"software problems (EBAY)," Y2K, broad-band issues, etc are
just rhetorical smoke bombs thrown by brokerage houses
to make investors think there is fire behind their
smoke. Afterall, did SUNW go down due to EBAY's
glitches? Did EBAY miss their numbers after the blackouts?
Did that negative article about AOL ever materialize
in Barrons this weekend? Did AOL or YHOO post bad
reports. On the contrary, if anything these "blue chips"
justify their multiple for their continued strong
year-over-year and sequential growth. The point is that these
companies ARE NOT going to disappear! If INTC is racing to
a new high (following a so-so report), chances are
that these CPU sales are going to translate into new
ISP connections and more ecommerce sales. Back in
June, INTC, MU and DELL were deemed crap buy the
"experts." Somehow, I suspect that Wall St will change its
tune about the internet sector too...
You are correct about trades being
made and executed at a specific point in time during
the day, but where you are wrong is in your thinking
that the trade is immediately posted to the tape.
Sometimes trades made in the morning are not posted to the
tape until minutes, sometimes hours later. This is
called an out of sequence trade. You are showing your
inexperience, which is fine, but when you make unnecessary
remarks to others that do know what they are posting, you
make yourself look like a fool. If that is what your
goal is, then you are succeeding.
AOL since June 98. It is (you guessed it) a
long-term hold for me.
Near-term? I would say not
very good prospects for gain by the end of August
unless we get blessed with a relief rally after the
FOMC. I wouldn't bet on AOL on such a short timeframe.
We broke an important support level at 98 and have
hit the 200-day SMA. It depends on what the economic
data story turns out to be. AOL could easily trade
back down to 75 by the end of August. 75 is very
strong. If we break it, all INETS will go down the toilet
with it. Up-side resistance is 115 but the news would
have to be very good to get us there.
For the low entry I would need to see some kind
of a strong reversal combined with a healthy
Internet index and resolution of economic (inflationary)
woes. Tall order, but I have time on my side
Before you ask the question, these things would have
already been resolved in order for us to trade at 135
which makes it very unlikely right now in the
near-term. A low entry would make more sense but I can't
claim to know what that level is right now. At any
rate, I would only put about 10-15% of my cards back on
the table and then let it ride (unless things fall
apart again). Much better prospects elsewhere right
now. These Internets are just too crazy for a
long-term investor such as myself. I guess a year is pretty
damn long for an INET.
Look at the chart on NHAN asap. This is a tiny,
hot little Silicon Valley company that is doing some
very cool things in telephony and communications.
Chart is breaking up off support at $2...this stock is
really starting to get noticed here by some very smart
I got in at $10. I remember it as if it was
yesterday. No wait, it was! Let me tell you, sentiment was
about the same at that point in time as it is now. I do
see some continued weakness in the next few months
for all of the INET's. They will turn it around
again. This sell off is much needed right now. Good luck
getting out at the bottom.
New alias is great!