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  • mikebert mikebert Sep 13, 1999 9:59 AM Flag

    Sell-off in premarket. It's just the

    Market crashes NEVER happen when people are
    bullish. How can they? If everybody thinks their stocks
    are going higher they are not going to sell en masse.
    Market crashes occur when everybody is bearish and fear
    stocks will go lower. So they sell their stocks and, lo,
    their fears are realized.

    Market tops are put in
    when folks are bullish. I think you were confusing
    putting in a top with a crash. People often talk a crash
    as falling from the previous peak. Like in 1987, the
    peak was on August 25 at a Dow of 2722. The Crash came
    on October 19 when the Dow hit 1730. So folks talk
    about the crash "starting" in late August when
    bullishness was at it maximum.

    This is simply not
    true. The market peaked in August 1987 in a wave of
    bullishness, just like it always does in the myriad of market
    peaks that do not preceed crashes. It then corrected in
    September and people got pessimistic just like they always
    do in a correction. Then the market rallied back to
    ~2640 on October 3. Obviously the correction "bottomed"
    in September, it was over.

    The "peak" on
    October 3 was 3% below the August peak and I'm sure
    people were less bullish then than they were in August.
    There was no reason to suspect that stocks wouldn't go
    higher though. Profits were expected to be good (and
    they were, profits on the S&P 500 were to grow by 30%
    over the next 12 months).

    Stocks didn't go
    higher after October 3. By Friday October 16, the Dow
    was down 15% from its October 3 level in another
    grinding correction, worse than the one in September. In
    the week that ended on October 16, the Dow had fallen
    225 points (this is like 1000 points down in one week
    today). Folks were, quite naturally, very bearish.


    So bearish that it looked like a bottom to some
    contrarian "bottom fishers". On Monday morning it was clear
    from the premarket futures that the market was going
    down.

    And it did, dropping 22%.

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    • My_Salty_Chocolate_Balls My_Salty_Chocolate_Balls Sep 13, 1999 10:01 AM Flag

      <EOM>

    • and save yourselves. It's not too late to get out YET.

      • 1 Reply to bbt1001
      • undiscovered sector of the internet.
        I speak
        of virtual cities where people can become citizens
        and settle in an area of the city according to their
        interests.
        Fortunecity might be the leading company in this most
        valuable sector of the internet
        The great value lies
        in the fact that consumer groups can be targeted
        according to their
        interests and that virtual cites are
        structured in a very simple way that also people who are

        no experts in the internet don't get lost in the
        web.
        Fortunecity is an US based company, which
        choosed to have the IPO not on the Nasdaq
        but in
        Germany ("Neuer Markt Symbol FCT").

        Some
        facts:
        Fortunecity.com has a total number of "citizens"
        of 3.5 million at a growth rate of 1% per
        day.
        The company has a lot of cooperations with companies
        like Warner (via
        acmecity.com, Ebay, and CBS). At
        the moment the company is ranked No.15 under the
        internet properties on the
        WEB. It is ranked in front
        of EBAY and CDnow.

        Only 25% of the companies
        equity went public (5.8 million shares). The
        total
        amount of shares therefore is about 23
        million. The
        market cap is therefore about 300 Million$.

        The
        company has sites in English, Swedish, Spanish, French in
        the Netherlands and is
        opening one site after the
        other.
        The IPO Price was 15 EURO and currently it is
        trading at 11.5 EURO.

        Nearly every day the
        company announces cooperations and acquisitions. It is
        expanding
        in an incredible speed. This company is moving in
        an area which is most promising in the internet and
        it
        is the leader in this respect. This company could
        be in a stage "Yahoo" or "Ebay" was two years
        ago.
        The only difficulty is that you have to trade the
        stock on the German market, but what in
        reality
        makes no big difference for you if you buy via your
        broker.

        I opened a group on silicon investor where you can
        find more
        information:

        http://talk.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-30136

        Regards Ralph

    • I expected it to go to >160 then I will short it today. But this fraud had already dropped too much.

    • I expect it to go to >160 then I will short it.

 
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