I'm new (got in at $35.00 range) I need some help from some people who have held MRO for long time. Should I add more on this drop or should I cut losses and get out? I am inclined to hold right now. MRO has so much going for it I can't believe it won't bounce above $40.00 before year end.
First, we must admit that this stock market "crash" is unprecedented. Once we admit this, then the next question is: do we sell or hold.
Since you got in at $35/sh you're only down some 30% or so. It could get much, much worse, but we don't know for sure.
Now, forget about fundamentals. Forget it for now. This has become a global sell-off problem,(thanks to the U.S.) and not about MRO's PE ratio. The US economy is two thirds spending, and the party's over. We have spent everything we can borrow and now we need credit to continue. And everybody else has our dollars, except us.
In order to meet their credit needs, and fear, and a lack of trust, people are withdrawing money from their money market accounts, their mutual funds accounts, their retirement accounts, etc, etc, and the investment fund managers are selling to meet these demands. Selling everything and fast!!! That's why everything is going down, the good stocks along with the bad. Sell everything, get me my money and quick!!!!
OK, now when will it end? Should I buy, should I sell? And if I buy, what should I buy?
Well, this is my opinion....I believe the market will go back up much slower than it came down. Trust is earned over time. Of course there will be a nice bounce up at some point, but after that it will be slow going.
Once that happens, which stocks will go up first and the fastest?
I believe these will fall into 2 categories.
1. The one's that got hit the hardest. (ie Kroger, it hardly went down(so far), so it won't go up like a rocket when things turn around)
2. The basics....food, medical, & fuels. Hard to live without these.
Gasoline is not an option right now. Everyone needs to buy gasoline, eat, and keep warm. MRO will most likely be one of these, but it will take some time for it to get back to $35.00/sh. if ever. Remember, MRO was around 40-45 before this crash started. $35.00 may be the high for the next 5 years for MRO.
And don't forget, the all electric cars are on their way. I give them 2 years. Demand for gas (including speculators) may never be as high as it was 3 months ago.
The U.S. has awaken from a drunk, 5 year spending spree and I don't believe we'll ever be the same again. Also, look for a one world financial agency and perhaps a single currency, in our lifetime.
Good luck with your decision.
Thanks for thoughtful analyses. I mostly agree,
but I'm betting MRO (and other O&G stocks) are going to rise again, and I believe MRO will go above $35, too. We aren't the only ones demanding crude, emerging economies are in the consumer energy market now, too. Conversion to electric, etc. won't happen in two years; it may only begin to happen then, but it's going to be a long while before our gas guzzlers are off the roads. How many people can afford a new, expensive vehicle at this time? And, it won't take much to send crude back up to $100. again. Another shock to the system - Middle East cris, hurricane, etc. --up it goes. And OPEC wants to keep price up, they like it a lot when it's $100 and up. Bottom line, I'm holding MRO and waiting for the eventual move back up again.
Good post and yet we all know as much as electricity is moving up in demand because we are trying to become less dependent on oil. However, we still have a long way to go because our technology still can quite figure out how to store the electricity by the wind and by the sun. Oil will still be in strong demand in the next year or two. MRO is quite undervalued at this level. We can talk all day long that people will try to get less dependent on gas and go for the electricity, but it is easier said than done. It is going to take time! MRO is at an excellent price and safe level to get in to those who have not own a position and those who got in at the price of $35 to average. I guarantee you that MRO will be to $30 in the next day or two! Mark my words!
I thought MRO would be stronger here. But this market is absurd right now. I'd buy more here and exit on the bounce. I've held this stock since the USX spin off. So I just hold for the long haul.
Whoever got in between 30 to $35 shall add more today as much as their buying power allows them. MRO is at an extremely good buy right now. You don't add today, you miss the greatest opportunity of the life time to own a great company at the best price ever. MRO at this price, you can just close your eyes and click buy and you will not lose.
Disclaimer: When you post on a message board for advice, you get what you pay for.
Will you be okay in the end? You should be alive and all that, so yes. We’re all sitting here waiting for the big blowout capitulation, where the baby gets tossed with the bath water and the market goes down 10% in a day on big volume. It hasn’t happened yet and won’t happen until you start seeing the brave faces who have continued to say “Hey, I’m buying” throughout the downturn fold their positions, then you’re getting close to the bottom. As long as you see, “Oil demand will stay up... recession-schmession, and people will buy gas and pay any price, or we're a buyout candidate”, you’ve got downside to come.
If you can stand potentially watching this thing drop another XX% and can handle looking at your statement and a price that’s lower than the one you paid, then it might be a buy for some of your money. If you can’t handle that, you’d better just sit still. I have bought dribs and drabs of this and that over the past couple 3 weeks and with the exception of one theme, they are all under water. It’s not fun to watch. Maybe Europe is the last shoe to drop. Maybe the market’s waiting for me :).
This is a case where the fundamentals on MRO mean nothing. The flood gate has been opened and MRO is floating downstream with everything else. Don't worry though, our great and decisive leader, George W. Bush will take charge real soon now and save all. ;) Maybe next time we can try something other than stupid for President. In other words, I do not plan on voting for the old coot and Stupid with Lipstick.
Well said--a picture-perfect distillation of the past adminstration and the future one Republicans are attempting to convince us to vote for. Since when did it become a good thing for idiots to be in, and run for, the White House? I'd figure the average person would demand a person who has excelled throughout life to be placed in high office--not someone promoted only through multiple associations with various types of cronies.
McCain and Palin need to recuse themselves from this race so that someone more qualified--I'm thinking Barney the Dinosaur--can accept the Republican nomination.