Agreed. The price is thrown out to help balance the bid/ask for a short while until some players change their positions. Just like $200 was dangling out there long enough for them to sell their long positions.
If they were REAL analysts they would factor in two cents for the value of the falling dollar in 2009.
Price of oil will bounce around a bit for the next few months until we get Auto industry figured out. The long term trend says oil will be back up to $75/barrel in 2nd half of 2009.