In keeping with the B.S. that is SGEN's equity, how do the Einsteins', the eternally optimistic (blind as a bat) interpret this one?
11M offered at 10.75 yet a TIMELY coverage pops up out of nowhere the same day. SO which is it???? The road up to $14 from 10.80 or a drop back down to the offering price from the current 11.5????????
And you wonder why I watch at this juncture?
Good luck. That's about the only chance you have!
retracing to $10.75 seemed obvious after the pricing but we've stayed comfortably above. I don't buy that someone is buying to keep the price up, voluntarily taking a hit when it "inevitably" drops. there's been too much volume this week to do that.
so now what? the offering closes Monday. if we get thru that without a drop, is the pressure off? a few days after?
"Assuming the data is good, as I expect based on the data we have, I'd be back in big time after that."
You may miss the Boat. From the action we are seeing it seems like the street has figured out what the "data" will be. It is usually too late after the data comes out. IMO, NOW is a great buying oportunity that we may not see ever again with SGEN.
I would add that I totally agree that the point in investing in companies like SGEN is to find the next Amgn. I was in GILD from 2000 until earlier this year when I sold, so I know it's beneficial to hold long. I just think there is a point in time that you are wise to take some of your money off the table. You can put it back in if the data is good and enjoy a long run afterwards.
I think you are completely missing the forest for the trees.
There is every technical (and fundamental) reason to believe that SGEN is heading higher in the long-term.
There was huge resistance at the 10 level, which you accurately have discussed in the past. The price has decisively broken through that resistance with both higher volume and high money flow. It has reached a short-term overbought condition and so will retrace a little of that move. To not see this move as bullish is a huge mistake. $10 is going to be strong support going foward.
Good luck (you'll need it if you still think this is the same old SGEN).
WOW. A calm and intellectual reply. Thank you. Extremely refreshing.
I believe we just said the same thing in 2 separate posts.
My last sentence repeats your sentiments of 10. Can't argue that. And your statement of "long term" is also shared. I also agree with the pull back. Overbought though? I don't agree. Over-hyped to mask the new offering is my position. We have to see 10.75ville. How else could anyone support the acquisition of SGEN at 10.75 when the going rate (at least today) is well above that.
BTW. I was watching for volume today, just in case the snakes pulled off the heist on a day of new coverage. Where 11M is desired to sell. We didn't get near that along with day-to-day (and accelerated) activity.
what exactly is your concern? that insiders are buying up millions of shares today at numbers above the secondary to prop up the price?
face it. you missed on this one. you made a strong call, were wrong, and refuse to admit it to anyone including yourself. 10 means 10 and holding 10. I still don't know what that means. we held 10. blew right past it even.
coverage pops up out of nowhere? what? do they usually give you notice when they initiate? it was tied to the news of the offering. I guess you assume they're corrupt. maybe they are making an informed judgement, whether right or wrong.
you read the article about how fast they're recruiting patients, right? there's still time to get on the train, Rick. there's risk though. be careful.
Actually I'm concerned that a lot of buys are done WELL above the price that our market underwritters will steal them at.
Makes no cents (OP) that an upgrade to 14 (WITHIN A YEAR!!) commands a price over the current offering.
For whatever its worth, the finish of the day is right at the continuance of the existing short-term down trend line. This, despite todays fiasco.
As for the "I missed it" statement? Well, Not really. Given the NO RISK action (AKA feeding frenzy on news) I was able to pick .2 off the day from .44 to .64 Not exactly a retirement move but not exactly "missing it" either.
10.75 offering from here HAS to be broached at some point in the next 1.5 weeks.
This event certainly changes my view of the channel basement. Appears to be able to hold above 10 from here on out unless the phase 2 prelims fail.
I would imagine that the stock will test the offering price at some point, but it would act as support. Clearly there are a lot of individuals/institutions who think that buying at $10.75 is a good idea. I would generally trust their judgement as opposed to anyone on a message board.