My investment in CLDX is relatively small compared to my long position in SGEN. I consider it to be a speculative holding.
I believe that I initially took a position in CLDX a while back when it was about $2.50. I have subsequently added a bit more periodically in the 4 to 5 range.
My initial investment thesis was based on enthusiasm for the SGEN ADC technology. I was trying to find a company with a promising developmental stage product using that technology.....especially one that was well leveraged to the upside in that respect. CDLX, at the time, fit the bill as it had a relatively low market cap and CDX-011 in the works.
I would rate the chances of CDX-011 as being "fairly decent" with regards to eventual approval in the indication of Triple negative breast disease with high GPNMB expression. Of course, that depends quite a bit on the patient selection regarding what constitutes "high expression". My gut feeling ( just my personal very speculative impression only ) is that within a properly selected cohort population the drug will show good clinical activity and may well merit consideration for eventual regulatory approval in this setting. If pressed to give odds of success I would venture 50-50, but there critically has to be appropriate patient selection trial criteria.
50-50 is, indeed, good enough for Ricardo to make a speculative wager on an early stage developmental company, provided that the entry is at a point of relatively lower market cap and high upside leverage potential.
As a warning: This is only my personal viewpoint. Investors should make their own decisions to buy sell or hold.
Bias: Ricardo is burying himself in this SGEN ADC technology. He could be on food stamps some time in the future due to his "irrational exuberance" The man needs help.