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Seattle Genetics Inc. Message Board

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  • blackmenrock Oct 27, 2012 10:14 PM Flag


    Hey Dawg. Hi
    I'm not currently invested over there but follow it closely. SGEN's newer royalty deals are more favorable than the IMGN/Roche deal. Older ones I think are about the same as IMGN's. Plus there are some outright 50/50 collaborations here. I think IMGN is toast for awhile. If it hit's $8 I think I'll get back in. They have more buyout potential.
    I'm slowly accumulating here. About 20% of where I'd like to be.
    What's your guess on what this will do on earnings?

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    • Not sure about Adcetris sales forecast. Off-label use could always provide a surprise upside. I think the Abbott (25M), two ph2 drugs for Roche (maybe 10-15M), and Eu approval if it comes in November (25M from Takeda), will all go in for next qtr, but I am not really sure. Only thing I know is more money seems to be coming into SGEN than IMGN at this time. CLDX drug may also get accelerated approval. I don't know if IMGN is a more attractive buyout candidate than SGEN.

      IMGN sell-off was probably overdone because in the end, T-DM1 sales will be exceeding 700M anyway for US so IMGN still gets the 5%. Perhaps analysts were hoping for starting at 5% and somewhere at 7% for higher sales. With priority review decision pending for T-DM1 and eventual approval (hopefully before Christmas), right about now maybe a good time to get back in, but my guess is always as "bad" as yours. $8 maybe too low of an entry target. 70% of HER2+ patients don't respond to Herceptin. Thing is, I think Roche should just drop Herceptin and Perjeta and focus on T-DM1. They're just trying to squeeze as much of patients and insurers monies from less potent drugs. FDA is not helping either.

      • 2 Replies to slumdawg2011
      • Slumdawg,

        Well put. Although we have no clue to where the bottom is, will avoid the analysts who keep sticking needles into TDM-1. It should still "Play in Peoria" and work out nicely. Forget the hype and hang in there.

        Have been a been a fan of SGEN ever since Bill Gates was a big investor. When he bailed out I still hung in there and it will be going in a long term upward movement. My only problem is that I'm short term.....age wise that is (-:


        Sentiment: Hold

      • blackmenrock Oct 28, 2012 1:46 AM Flag

        Thanks. I'm sure your right about the 8 bucks being too low. This may indeed be the right time.
        Some Analysts are projecting just 300k in royalties the first year there. That seems about right to me. Herceptin's patent expires in 2014 so you'd think they would be wanting to get T-DM1 to front- line ASAP. I thought it would produce 250ml per year at peak. Now it looks like just half that. Maybe IMGN would be better off to just monetize the royalties and concentrate on their in-house candidates like SGEN.
        Thanks again

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