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Seattle Genetics Inc. Message Board

  • mauihope2000 mauihope2000 Jan 14, 2013 5:05 PM Flag

    Earnings

    There might be a chance SGEN posts a profit Q4, Depending on how they account the milestone payments. Total revenue Q4 could be around $150ml including those payments and cash on hand should grow to about 400ml. Just a guess.
    I suspect they will take some q4 and stretch out a bigger portion.
    It's hard to believe analysts don't take milestones into account in their projections knowing that they are such a big part of SGEN's business plan. What a $4bil potential?
    They also said they would update guidance in Feb. Previously they said on label would be flat for 2013 which hints that there may be no new indications approved in 2013. Maybe that will change too.
    My guess is for break even or better earnings q4.

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    • Milestone payments always get spread over many years based on the terms of the contractual agreements. I doubt that the impact on this Qs #s will be of any major significance. Siegal's comments on milestones spoke more to cash than to earnings.

      • 1 Reply to paladin_roams
      • Thanks
        OK, Bottom line, They began 2012 with $330 million in cash and after running the business for a year will end with considerably more cash. Anyway you slice it that's a profit and the margin on milestone revenue is 100% profit.
        Debt is $0
        The years of cultivating collaborations is in the very beginning stages of paying off big.
        Milestone payments and royalties may outperform all other sources of revenue for SGEN over time and should not be overlooked when assigning valuation.

        Of course I don't know how they will account Q4 milestone payments. They've never achieved anything like a European approval milestone before.
        Paladin you are most likely right based on history.

        Today was most likely some of the 22 million shares sold short being covered. Just 20 million left to go?

    • mauihope: As I mentioned last week, Siegall's comments during the most recent investor presentation contained hints of a surprisingly robust Q4, so you could be onto something.

 
SGEN
31.10-0.14(-0.45%)Dec 24 12:59 PMEST

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