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Seattle Genetics, Inc. Message Board

  • biogynecologist biogynecologist Feb 13, 2013 10:07 AM Flag

    New Credit Suisse Rating

    Seattle Genetics (SGEN) OUTPERFORM J. Kantor
    CP: US$ 29.24 TP: US$ 32 CAP: US$ 3.5b
    Key Drivers Intact; Lowering Estimates and Raising Target Price to $32 (from $28)
     We are reiterating our Outperform and raising our target to $32. While we expect some investors will be deterred by the flat
    sales guidance for 2013, we believe that SGEN will end 2013 higher in anticipation of positive Phase III AETHERA data in
    H1:14, new growth drivers for US Adcetris, building ex-US sales, an expanding pipeline of six proprietary (and codevelopment)
    ADCs, and an advancing pipeline from its technology licenses. Our strategy for 2013 is to accumulate on
    pullbacks, especially those related to near-term sales, as the primary value is in the expansion indications for Adcetris and
    the pipeline.
     Q4 results were ahead of expectations but US sales and guidance were light. Adcetris sales were $35.4M vs. consensus of
    $33.2M (CS at $33.6M). Backing out $2.6M in unexpected sales in Canada, the US sales were $32.8M. Adcetris guidance
    was $130-140M vs. consensus of $144.1M (CS at $145.3M). We believe the below consensus guidance will pressure
    SGEN shares, but does not alter our long-term view, and we would buy on any weakness.
     2013 drivers: The most important value drivers in 2013 include (1) more Adcetris data in DLBCL, non-lymphoma cancer,
    and first-line HL and MTCL, (2) publications/compendia listing for Adcetris in CTCL, and (3) advancement of its pipeline
     Valuation: Our new $32 (from $28) target includes an increased probability of success for first-line Hodgkin lymphoma
    (65%) and first-line MTCL (75%), supported by robust efficacy and safety data from ongoing Phase I/II trials. Our valuation
    includes $22.50 for Adcetris, $7.50 for the pipeline, and $2 for cash. We are lowering our 2013/2014/2015 EPS estimates to
    ($0.79)/($0.36)/$0.02 from ($0.62)/($0.21)/$0.15 respectively.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

40.23+0.91(+2.31%)Sep 2 4:00 PMEDT