Old news. SGEN has become over-hyped. It was real news in 2003.
Sgen has Adcetris. That's it. Collaborations drugs with their 5% royalties won't contribute significant revenue for many years.
I estimate that CDX-11 will be the first collaboration approved and that it may contribute $5mil -$7mil royalty rev in it's first full year 2016. That's your pipeline. Even if 4 (20%) of the 20 collaborations make it, SGEN's piece is tiny and years from fruition.
I believe that the $3bil - $4bil milestone potential should be discounted because it is unachievable.
SGEN has no internal pipeline beyond Adcetris which has a chance of approval for many many years.
Please prove me wrong.
The current price is extreme. My price target is $24.
This my opinion only and it is alone out there. I have sold all my shares here and hold no position. I think Adcetris is a fantastic drug. HL and ALCL are cancers that readily respond to current treatment. Solid tumor cancers like renal and pancreatic have not yet shown the same level of response to ADC's. That's not to say there is no place for them.
A powerful new tool for delivering lifesaving drugs is emerging, one that directs the medicines to microscopic targets in the body.
These cancer treatments, called drug conjugates because they couple two therapies, basically work like guided missiles. A toxic warhead is strapped to a missile that homes in on and drops its payload on a specific tumor. Such pinpoint aim has been an important goal for decades, because it could maximize a drug's impact while limiting side effects, such as the hair loss that accompanies chemotherapy's indiscriminate march through the body.
Now, two of these new drugs are in use against cancer, and drug makers are developing many more.
"There's a window opening here," says Severin Schwan, chief executive of Roche Holding ROG.VX -0.68% AG.
The latest drug conjugate to receive U.S. approval was Roche's Kadcyla, in February. The median survival of patients receiving Kadcyla for a type of advanced breast cancer was 30.9 months, 23% longer than for patients receiving a commonly used treatment, according to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
Earlier, the agency approved Adcetris, a drug conjugate that in 73% of patients either eliminated all of their Hodgkin's disease tumors or caused them to shrink.
Among the patients who have seen a benefit from Adcetris is Kathleen Settoon. After her Hodgkin's disease resurfaced in 2011, Ms. Settoon underwent seven courses of the drug conjugate. Quickly, the tightness in her chest and pains in her shoulder and back diminished, she recalls. After three cycles of Adcetris, her cancer had gone into remission, she says. In addition, she says she didn't suffer the side effects, like a weakened immune system, hair loss and fatigue, that follow chemotherapy and other treatments.