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Seattle Genetics, Inc. Message Board

  • koolbrez22 koolbrez22 Feb 27, 2014 9:13 PM Flag

    Share price

    Don't much care for SP on a daily basis but at this level I'm feeling a little easier because a takeout now would have to be well north of $100. Not that I'd be looking forward to it but it just makes SGEN much harder to steal.
    $100 would still be a great bargain for an acquirer given that in a year or so (after good results of the over 60 FE trial) it will be 2X that.
    That's my take on it and it is worth exactly what you paid for it.

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    • Getting pounded today. Right up there among the companies getting the worst beatings.

      • 2 Replies to scr20022000
      • Chart inspection will quickly demonstrate that this is typical MO for SGN. SP runs up big then gets driven down big taking advantage of low volume in down days. Apparently there is obstinate short interest that keeps on plugging their leaky ship, unsuccessfully (so far) and at great cost. On the opposite side there is also an equally firm Institutional ownership and so we are in this situation where tutes own over 100% of shares outstanding while at the same time (last count) there also are 16 million shares shorted (~13% of shares outstanding). For those who trade, SGEN is almost a perfect channeling stock with significant money to be made via quick successful trades (worth pointing that quick trades are not my cup of tea) but most always the big money is made on the extremes. However a low pass filter applied for the past few years of trading averages the trading noise and produces a steadily ascending trend line.
        Obviously there is a difference of opinion and understanding between the dueling long and short camps and there will be a time in the not so distant future when one side will be right and the other wrong. There is no middle in this situation.
        It should be obvious where my bias is and my expectation is that we are 1.5 to 2 years from the final resolution. In that time frame I also expect that barring black swan type of results from the ongoing trials, the SP will be a 4x multiple of the current. However in the interim I also fear that some BP will see what I see and comes knocking with a proposition that proves irresistible to some performance starved tutes and steals the jewel before it is completely polished.

      • Biotech index down big today. We're just part of it. :-(

37.140.00(0.00%)Apr 24 4:00 PMEDT