does SGEN retrace all the way back to its 200 MA which is $42.50? Is there any valid reason for this carnage? I've seen this before, recently in January and last June, but this pullback seems to be unrelenting. The shorts are strong at the moment. Margin calls? Would appreciate anyone's thoughts. Blood in street usually is the time to buy.
I started this topic a bit over a month ago figuring there was a good chance SGEN would decline to its 200 day MA, which it did and pierced. I said the pullback seemed unrelenting and sure enough it was. In all my years of investing into SGEN I had not seen anything like it.....exasperated by the biotech bubble having popped. Yes valuations were too high. The IBB has given back 57% of its 12 month gain but a much lower percentage of its 2 year gain. Where will the IBB stablize? Is there still downside based on valuation? Perhaps but I believe now is the time to start nibbling on SGEN again. It is $36.58 currently and I would be shocked to see it drop below $35 just on general biotech re-valuation. Unless there is something specifically wrong with SGEN (sales, data) then this is a screaming buy for both the intermediate and long term. Best of luck to all SGEN investors. -- Fish
Maybe there is a role reversal this time around. Until now there always was a run up to the CC and a subsequent sell off after it so maybe if you trade it, this time the sell off is preceding the CC and it runs after it. As a longer term investor, actually things did change: results from ongoing trials are now two months closer. If you invested because you thought that the odds of positive results are highly likely, then the vagaries of the market are to be expected and ignored. Eventually the sentiment will reverse and SP will go up again, perhaps not as fast as it sunk down but certainly higher than the last high. The real danger here is (as it has always been) that SGEN is waterfront property and at these low prices some BP could fly in and steal it. However, last fall the BB added shares in the $42-$44 range and since they are the big dog of SGEN and they have proven that they know how to maximize their ROI, I suppose that SGEN would not be sold for at least 2X their last buy. From my assessment that would still be too low of a price for SGEN but it is at least a double from where we're at today. My feeling is that BB may still be accumulating during this pull back in low key mode not to impact SP and between now and EOY with results from at least two of the ongoing trials in the bag, things will be way brighter.
scr, if you keep looking for reasons to explain the inexplicable, you're going to drive yourself crazy. The entire biotech sector has been on a roller coaster (latest evidence: today's trading). In recent months, SGEN went up more than most (based on its fine fundamentals and promising future, but not on any real news), so it came down more than most (also based on no news). Nothing has changed regarding the company's outlook. If you still believe in what you believed in two months ago, you hold or buy and you wait for the future to unfold. If not, you sell and move on. It's really that simple, imo.
Nearly the entire biotech space has been hit during the last week in one of those cyclical swings. SGEN's investment rationale has not changed a bit. Consequently, though generally not a trader, I just bought back a small batch that I sold in the $50s.