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  • no_body99 no_body99 Oct 22, 1999 1:11 PM Flag

    3rd Quarter #'s

    have not filed a class action against UNM? If so,
    maybe they too could join in the fun. This is
    unbelievable. They are all going to look pretty bad when this
    stock recovers. That won't be too far off, and some
    people will have wasted some very valuable time of their
    lives.

    Anyhow, if there is a big write-off as expected, it will
    be the last; and you can expect a stead climb from
    there. They won't be fooled twice. It looks like it
    might be time soon to buy more.

    Good luck to
    all!

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Nobody, you just keep beating that same old,
      tired drum, predicting a great recovery, telling
      investors to have faith, telling everyone how easy it is to
      rebuild what Chandler has wrecked.

      How about
      answering a couple of questions, and please be
      specific.

      1. After all the write-off dust settles, exactly how
      is this company going to recover to where it was
      before the crash, and how long do you predict it will
      take?

      2. The company must improve sales everyone would
      agree. When Chandler has failed to consistently to do
      that in the past with Provident or Revere, what is he
      going to do differently now to ensure sales
      growth?

      No BS, Nobody. No happy talk. I have asked you these
      questions before, and your answers have been long on hipe
      and short on substance. Tell us why we should invest
      another dime in this company with everything we now know
      and with all the ticking time bombs that may or may
      not be defused over the next several months.

      • 3 Replies to tickertocker_2000
      • The Sales growth is very easy to accomplish. All
        they have to do is answer the door when brokers ask
        for a price reduction at the prospect stage. The
        challenge is the right balance of profitable growth and
        sales.

        Selling will never be UNUM's problem. To balance sales
        with Profit is the key Chandler and many other execs
        at UNUM will figure out. There is no magic solution
        and it is a new puzzle every quarter, as soon as you
        put it together it falls apart with new puzzles like
        higher than expected incidence spread over 7 million
        insured lives with no opportunity to increase rates due
        to a rate guarantee of two years or
        more.

        From here on out there will be nothing but windfall
        profits but UNUM must watch the number of good customers
        that do leave when faced with a price increase, when
        they can receive "good enough" service for their
        premium dollar.

      • I expect that UNM will have a realized anualized
        net income of 500 million by third or fourth quarter
        next year. By saying that I don't expect the year 2000
        financials to produce that. But the stage will be set for
        it. 2001 should produce in excess of
        that.

        Why? Because the combined NI of both companies would
        have produced that by that time assuming their past
        trends were going to continue. Together with the cuts by
        Chandler it should be a slam dunk. OK, he has had to write
        off more than we expected. But that is life. With the
        write offs, UNM should be well positioned to hit that
        level. In this business, I value that level of cash flow
        at 12-17 billion. I used at 3-4% perpetuity to arive
        at that number which assumes no growth. UNM is
        currently at 6.8. So, by my estimations the stock should
        double by third or fourth quarter next year. -- Not what
        I wanted to wait for, but I do have
        time.

        Now, for the long-term, internal growth will be a
        factor. But for the short-term, combining the companies
        by aligning the product offerings, consolidating the
        client services and claims payment and management
        systems, consolidating the financial reporting systems,
        and giving UNM the appearance of a cohesive
        organization is paramount. That is what Chandler is doing even
        as we speak.

        How Chandler will address the
        need to create a real sales organization is anybody's
        guess. I've never seen him do that. But as I've stated
        before, as long as he can continue merging, that won't be
        a big issue. The smoke will hide that short coming,
        and maybe he will pull a rabit out of the hat and
        show he really can do it.

        I agree with you that
        it needs to be there. We simply disagree in the
        timeframe needed.

      • Do you really think this stock can go any lower?
        I do not have any substance to provide to you, but
        this will be a good company. With the stock so low
        right now, it really has no place to go but up. How far
        and how fast? Who knows.

        That is the only
        reason I can give you to invest in this company RIGHT
        NOW!!!!

 
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