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Unum Group Message Board

  • unumwatcher unumwatcher Oct 21, 1999 8:14 PM Flag

    3rd Quarter #'s

    Just wait and see. The loss will be between
    $3-$500 million. I am not trying to negative about this
    stock. I own shares. Harold and company are getting all
    the dirt out as soon as possible.

    I am sorry
    if you did not get this information at work today.
    It maybe another case of them not revealing ALL the
    information..

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Do you even uderstand what you are saying? What
      kind of statement is "2 - 500 million dollars"? Could
      you have given any ore of a wider range for the
      "upcoming" losses? The SEC, if they could find you, would
      put you away for such ridiculous statements.

    • is already anticipated by the investment
      community. Both ML and SSB mentioned write down numbers of
      $550-575M in their upgrade recommendations. This clears the
      decks...ML says UNM could double in two years with modest
      improvement...SSB says target is $40 in 12 months. There could be
      more tax selling in November, but EXPECT a solid 1Q
      stock performance from UNM. I'm in earlier this week at
      27.

      • 1 Reply to b_zerkley
      • have not filed a class action against UNM? If so,
        maybe they too could join in the fun. This is
        unbelievable. They are all going to look pretty bad when this
        stock recovers. That won't be too far off, and some
        people will have wasted some very valuable time of their
        lives.

        Anyhow, if there is a big write-off as expected, it will
        be the last; and you can expect a stead climb from
        there. They won't be fooled twice. It looks like it
        might be time soon to buy more.

        Good luck to
        all!

    • I would think that the casualty companies looking
      to meld the workers comp with disability would be a
      better fit, at least on the group side. How bout Kemper,
      AIG etc. A bank like Chase makes some sense on the
      I.D. side especially but 24 hour on the group side is
      what companies can't seem to develop. Group companies
      lack the comp expertise and comp companies can't seem
      to handle non-occupational insurance. Buying the
      expertise makes sense. Can't wait to see the 2 fighting
      over who going to control.

    • is that it doesn't hold Chandler to any higher
      standard than the poor NASA computer programer whose error
      smacked a space probe into the surface of Mars. You seem
      to have spent time around him. How many times have
      you heard him preach to employees about "raising the
      bar" of performance, etc. I have never been around
      anybody who sermonizes so frequently and passionately
      about the standard for performance he expects from all
      his employees. I have no problem with that kind of
      rhetoric from a CEO, unless he doesn't feel he should be
      held to the same standard by all those people who have
      put their faith and money behind him.

      You
      obviously don't feel that he should be held to any
      exceptional standard. Hey, if Harold didn't have all the
      information he needed, if he made ill informed assumptions,
      if he didn't understand UNUM's purported reserve
      problems, if Harold agreeded with UNUM to limited due
      diligence during their negotiations (as claimed in the
      class action suit) well, hey, it was only human error!
      Give him a break, and let him try to redeem
      himself.

      You know darn well that Harold will fire anyone who
      works for him if he believes that person is not doing
      his job---anyone, in a heartbeat, and without a
      chance to redeem himself. I have seen him do that time
      and time again. Some would say that is just being a
      tough CEO. I agree, but only if the CEO holds himself
      to the same standard.

      In the UP merger, the
      primary jobs Chandler and ORR had were to do their home
      work and then sell the merger to Wall Street,
      shareholders, and employees of both companies. Wouldn't you
      agree? To gain everyone's confidence, they made
      representations, based on the home work they should hve done, that
      now appear to have been grossly erroneous. If you are
      not going to hold these two guys accountable, then
      who should be responsible? Nobody? Just chalk it up
      to human error, pat them on the butt, give 'em a pep
      talk, and let them try, try again?

      The Board of
      Directors should fire both of these guys immediately. If
      Chandler were judging anyone else's conduct but his own,
      the poor slob who made the due diligence errors
      Chandler has wittingly or unwittingly made would have been
      sent packing 30 seconds after the stock
      tanked.

      From a personal standpoint, one other experience I had
      with Chandler sticks in my craw when considering his
      performance in this merger. Chandler was speaking to a room
      full of what he called his "senior management team".
      He was explaining and selling his compensation
      philosophy and the new basis of compensation for all the
      poeple in the room. He said it had made him a "wealthy
      man". Some in that room were being required to
      experience a 50% reduction in income so that they could
      participate in Chandler's exulted stock option program. There
      was no choice. They had to place their faith in him
      or get another job. Where are these people now?


      More importantly, where are the lower compensated
      people now who were also required to put their trust in
      Chandler? And don't tell me Chandler has lost millions over
      this deal as if that somehow should excuse whatever
      his responsibility was in this fiasco. Fire him
      today, and he is STILL worth millions. It's all
      relative, my friend, and there are too many people at PVT,
      Revere, and UNUM--- people who have worked all their
      lives at these companies---who have suffered far more
      that Chandler has.

    • Why did you buy this stock? I sold half my UNM
      holdings several months ago at a nice gain and bought it
      back at 35. That's because I believe in the company
      and Chandler. I certainly do not agree with all he
      does, and I don't think he is a good long-term choice
      for UNM for the same reasons you have mentioned. But
      the short term gains have been there in the past, and
      I expect them to be there again. So, if it dips
      again, I may go against my better judgement and buy more
      just because it is such a good deal.

    • I think you'll see a 500+ million hit that has
      already been priced in. It's probably much more than will
      be needed. Much will depend on how bad D&H Europe is
      shaping up.You'll see them reprice the options and have
      huge releases in reserves next year. Even without a
      major change in incidence rates, interest rate jumps
      alone will free up reserves thus making the new regime
      look like heroes. If they're going to take a hit for
      the second time this year, you can bet they will be
      conservative this time around. As an "X", I'm still buying
      because you'll never see the 20's again except maybe the
      day 3rd Q is announced. The institutions have already
      unloaded if they were going to. The ones that did will be
      back on board by mid 2000 and we'll see 50's again if
      you can wait it out. For those that bought over the
      past month, they'll think Harold's a Hero.

    • Tickertocker, while we may not agree on many
      things on this board, I think all of us on this board
      want the same thing. We would like the stock price to
      increase, and the employee working there to be treated
      decently.

      I, also , have not moved up in my professional life
      by stepping on someone else. I feel that is the best
      way to go through life.

      Unfortunatley, there
      are many others who do not agree with this. It makes
      them feel superior to walk over others. Well, that is
      their choice. Sooner or later they will get walked on.


      Look at Bob Crispin. He came to Unum thinking he was
      next in line to replace Jim Orr. Now he he is gone. He
      got undercut.

      Chandler will get his. It may
      not be with UnumProvident, but it will happen.


      I hope you stay on this board. You have good
      input!!!!

    • Let me see if I understand you. You say that UNUM
      is turning away a lot of business. "UNUM must be
      choosy wereas other carriers have chosen not to be so
      choosy and have not faced their similar claims
      problems..." I guess that means, according to you, that the
      more "choosy" a company is, the more likely it is to
      have claims problems. This is truly a new concept, and
      you should take full credit for it.

      Other
      comments. I am not an analyst, and never claimed to be. I
      own a lot of other stocks, but don't write on their
      boards, because I do not believe I can write with the
      authority that comes from the extensive first-hand
      knowledge I have of the companies Chandler has run over the
      past several years. I have no first-hand knowledge of
      UNUM, and you don't see me commenting on that company.
      As for the Provident/UNUM merger, I have no idea who
      hid what from whom. I only know that Chandler is as
      shrewd a negotiator as anyone around, and I find it hard
      to believe that anything sliped by him unless he
      wanted it to. (The class action suit claims that PVT and
      UNUM agreed to and signed a limited due diligence
      clause during their negotiations. Why was that
      done?)

      There is only one area that I have real knowledge of,
      and that is Harold Chandler and the way he runs a
      company. In other words, I know the senior management of
      this company, and I have no confidence in it. That
      does tend to make a person negative. Unlike you and
      some others, I don't predict that the stock will go to
      X in so many months. I don't know what it will do.
      My experience with Chandler, however, has taught me
      what he will and will not do. He will cut costs, and
      he will not grow sales. That's his track record, and
      until somebody can show me otherwise, why should I
      believe that he will have better success with this deal
      than he did with Provident or Revere?

      UNUM was
      and still is a great company. So was Provident and so
      was Paul Revere. Chandler will pull off the merger as
      he did with the other two companies. He'll
      consolidate products, eliminate redundancy in systems and
      people, and so on. Those are relatively easy things to
      do. After he has done all that stuff, he will have
      run out of ideas and skills all at the same time, and
      the company will fail to sell its products. That's
      his track record.

      If you, Nobody, and others
      have no problem with a guy who doesn't understands the
      insurance brokerage business and how to sell insurance
      products, then you are poster children for the "ignorance
      is bliss" axiom.

    • who are still with the company, you say? I could
      give you the names of a 100 talented people--people
      who built Provident and Revere--who are not still
      with the company and entirely because of HC. But of
      course there are still talented people with UP, and I
      wish them well.

      My seniments about Chandler go
      all the way back to when he took over at PVT, and the
      sentiments were not alway so negative. When I first met him
      and spent time around him I was as favorably
      impressed as I have ever been by anyone. He had a great
      opportunity when he took over PVT, and he made many, many
      difficult but correct decisions. But in all he did, he
      showed zero understanding about certain things that are
      critical to the success of a brokerage comapny. He totally
      destroyed the PVT field force, and with it, PVT sales went
      to hell. The company nearly ceased being a competive
      factor in the market.

      Okay, I said to myself, he
      did what he had to do, and so what if he had to get
      rid of a lot of people to do it. Then, when he bought
      Revere, I thought he was a shear genius! Among other
      things, he now had what was arguably the best, most
      experienced, and stable field force in the brokerage business.
      With Revere, he had to make some of the same decisions
      he had to make with PVT, but he had bought a company
      that didn't have nearly the kinds of problems PVT had
      when he took over there. But I saw him handle Revere
      exactly as he had PVT, and I began to lose confidence in
      him.

      When it was all finished, he had squandered the Revere
      opportunity. With two companies, I watched this man completely
      wreck the field forces he needed if he were to sell his
      products. I watched this from close range, and it made me
      sick. He is a guy who must run things with an iron
      fist. He has no time for anyone who disagrees with him,
      and he manages through intimidation and fear.

    • You haven't discouraged me from commenting on
      this board. I just don't think I can add anything new
      to what I have already stated, and I don't think
      there would be much interest from the board in having
      me continue my evaluation of Harold
      Chandler.

      You made the comment that if I achieved my objective
      of exposing Chandler for for the kind of person and
      CEO i believe he really is, it would be "at the
      expense of another man." True. True. And nothing would
      give me greater satisfaction than to have played some
      small role in his professional demise.

      Remember
      something. If what I have said about him is inaccurate,
      nothing I have said is going to hurt him. If what I have
      said is true, any harm done him by what I have said is
      harm NOT from what I have SAID, but harm from what he
      has DONE in building a career that has been at the
      expense of so many other people.

      There are CEO's
      out there who have Chandler's skills and who are
      builders rather than destroyers. UNUM deserves a person
      like this, and so do the employees of UNUM and those
      of us who have inveted in the company.

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UNM
34.75+0.05(+0.14%)Jul 11 4:04 PMEDT

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