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ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. Message Board

  • niteowl164 niteowl164 Oct 24, 2012 12:34 AM Flag

    IMUC = another dud?

    Beware of a reverse split if the share price don't rise. The NYSE is strict on price and will delist IMUC if the stock continues to fall. With this new dilution they're in prime position for a future RS.

    JMO

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    • Well there are some interesting points here but this is scenario is so familiar. I guess I should be on the hopeful side but hope and stocks are a poisonous mix. We'll just have to wait and see. This should be interesting. IMO, pay close attention and get ready to dump.

    • Good point. The cash they just raised will only last a fairly short time. Assuming they manage to have a successful P2, the P3 will cost a shed load of $$$$$$$ which will result in significantly more dilution. They still have $30m of the S-3 to do. The guys who pumped the stock to $4 are long gone & are now on the short side (hence the massive naked shorting). My prediction is it hits $1 by the end of the year with a down listing in Q1, '13.
      My put options (Nov 12s) have more than doubled in the past 4 weeks. They expire on Nov 16th so am looking to take profit & buy the Feb / May puts which have less open interest.
      The other shoe still has to drop regarding Manish Singh's "resignation" which when it does will result in another 10%+ drop depending on how bad the news is. Come on IMUC the THRUTH WILL SET YOU FREE!!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

      • 2 Replies to bannerbruce208
      • My take: The plot is to have enough money to finance activities through 2013 and into 2014.

        If the interim is positive (Q1/Q2 2013), which is a bet, of course, they will go and talk to FDA and see where they stand. (At that time, they would still have at least one year of cash left).

        FDA may say, "go for it and file!" and the MC of IMUC will go through the roof and IMUC will have to look acutely for a partner to professionally manage the regulatory review, the filing and interactions with EMA, PMDA etc., and pre-marketing and marketing of the product. And they will find one, given the huge market opportunity, at very favorable terms (alliance or outright acquisition). That will take care of the mega $$$$.

        The FDA may say "great, but we still want a phase III". Very unlikely, because then the question is: Is a phase III feasible given the positive data already at the interim checkpoint from a randomized, placebo controlled phase II against standard of care STUPP regimen? Who on earth (patients, ethical committees, physician/investigators, collaborative study groups ...) is going to endorse such a trial?.. This trial is not going to recruit. This whole scenario is VERY unlikely.

        The interim analysis may be trending but not yet statistically significant for OS. Highly probable. So, the study monitoring board will say: "Continue as planned!" And IMUC will have final results in fall 2013, when all the data from all the patients are in and processed and analyzed.

        The final results may be positive for the PE (statistically significant improvement of overall survival): BINGO!.. and back to what we said above: Filing and registration. Stock price sky rocketing. (Take Dendreon as a benchmark). Partnering or sell-out.

        They may be negative in two ways: Negative negative. Then all longs are toast. Or, negative on the primary endpoint but positive on the secondary endpoints. Then we would have to say: In this indication, brain cancer, an extended PFS is worth a lot... and may be enough to allow for a filing. Again: We would have a product and still a substantial MC appreciation for IMUC, partnering or sell-out.

        All we can state today: Very compelling phase I in a single-arm, un-controlled design. A phase II study designed to hit for the home-run. A remarkable performance throughout this phase II: Highest profile of centers recruited, astounding enrollment rates. An extension of the trial to enhance its power, decided and implemented mid-year 2012 and accomplished by September. In summary: Really an outstanding phase II performance in this indication on all accounts. Granted: Manesh Singh's departure is a conundrum and very irritating. We all do not like fall-outs at the top of an enterprise like this. Yet, without trying to be facetious, the present set-up at the top further improves the burn-rate somewhat.

        You've taken your bets. I, obviously, have taken mine. And I enjoy the argument. Thanks, bannerbruce.

      • There won't be a Phase III. It's going to be approved after Phase II, like Avastin, except its a much more effective treatment that's worth much more money in terms of treating GBM. Also, if the interim analysis doesn't come soon, it's possible that they will stop the trial altogether to needlessly stop people from dying from GBM, and Phase II will end early and proceed directly to the NDA phase. It's called Phase IIb for a reason. Apparently, you are unfarmiliar with what happens when a scheduled orphan drug treats a deadly disease. You don't need to have 1000 patients to demonstrate efficacy.

    • To get delisted, IMUC's share price would have to drop below 1$ per share and stay there for 30 consecutive days. Presently, at 2$ per share, the MC of IMUC is about 80 m$. To drop below 1$ per share would mean that the market values this company at less than 40 m$. With about 30 m$ in cash on the company's accounts after this secondary is closed, you are, in fact, suggesting that the assets of this company could be valued as low as less than 10 m$.

      For a biotech, IMUC has quite a nice pipeline of one project in clinical stage development and two in pre-clin, ready to move into the clinics during the first half of next year. Their lead project, ICT-107 for newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (brain cancer) patients, is in a randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled phase II trial, that completed enrollment in early September and is awaiting clinical data in spring next year, autumn at the latest. IMUC having published exceptionally strong efficacy signals from a phase I trial in this indication, and a phase II designed and powered to support early FDA filing for approval if positive in this high-unmet medical need indication, I see battalions of biotechs with much less convincing data and performance plus debt on the balance sheet (nota bene: IMUC is debt free) with a MC 20x or even 30x if not higher than what you see looming for IMUC.

      Only a general market crash could take IMUC low enough for long enough to justify your "prophecy", niteowl.

      jmho.

    • A new ID (if not a new poster) to ignore

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Thanks for your two cents. Now get lost!

 
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