Thu, Sep 18, 2014, 12:38 PM EDT - U.S. Markets close in 3 hrs 22 mins

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. Message Board

  • discoduck33 discoduck33 Feb 4, 2013 1:41 PM Flag

    My whole spreadsheet

    Just copy and paste on your excel spreadsheet. Months is the first row. Enrolled is the 2nd. Yada yada.

    01/11 02/11 03/11 04/11 05/11 06/11 07/11 08/11 09/11 10/11 11/30/11 12/31/11 01/12 02/12 03/12 04/12 05/12 06/12 07/12 08/12 09/12 10/12 11/12 12/12 01/13 02/13 03/13 04/13 05/13 Jun-13 Jul-13
    Enrolled 3 6 9 12 15 20 25 35 52 65 84 100 124 148 166 185 215 240 262 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278 278
    Differential 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 10 17 13 19 16 24 24 18 19 30 25 22 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    Treated Differential 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 1.44 2.40 2.40 4.80 8.16 6.24 9.12 7.68 11.52 11.52 8.64 9.12 14.40 12.00 10.56 7.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
    SOC Patients differential 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.80 0.80 1.60 2.72 2.08 3.04 2.56 3.84 3.84 2.88 3.04 4.80 4.00 3.52 2.56 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
    Deceased (if no ICT-107 deaths) 0 0 0 0 0.0336 0.0816 0.144 0.2208 0.312 0.44 0.592 0.8384 1.2256 1.4576 2.2416 2.8864 3.7168 4.3792 5.7088 6.9024 8.3504 9.9472 11.6592 13.4832 15.2496 17.0144 18.7744 20.5472 22.3344 24.0848 25.7568
    Deceased (if all SOC) 0 0 0 0 0.1008 0.2448 0.432 0.6624 0.936 1.32 1.776 2.5152 3.6768 4.3728 6.7248 8.6592 11.1504 13.1376 17.1264 20.7072 25.0512 29.8416 34.9776 40.4496 45.7488 51.0432 56.3232 61.6416 67.0032 72.2544 77.2704
    ICT-107 Deceased 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0600 0.1200 0.1800 0.3000 0.4200 0.5800 0.7400 1.0600 1.5600 1.9800 2.6800 3.4600 4.4200 5.5000 6.5000
    Total Dead if control SOC & ICT-107 works the same 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0336 0.0816 0.1440 0.2208 0.3120 0.4400 0.5920 0.8384 1.2256 1.4576 2.2416 2.8864 3.7768 4.4992 5.8888 7.2024 8.7704 10.5272 12.3992 14.5432 16.8096 18.9944 21.4544 24.0072 26.7544 29.5848 32.2568

    These are separate column that I used for modeling (percent deceased)
    Control Treated
    4 months 7.00% 0.00%
    5 months 10.00% 0.00%
    6 months 13.00% 0.00%
    7 months 16.00% 0.00%
    8 months 19.00% 0.00%
    9 months 22.00% 0.00%
    10 months 25.00% 0.00%
    11 months 31.00% 0.00%
    12 months 37.00% 0.00%
    13 months 43.00% 0.00%
    14 months 48.00% 0.00%
    15 months 53.00% 0.00%
    16 months 58.00% 6.25%
    17 months 61.00% 6.25%
    18 months 64.00% 6.25%
    19 months 66.00% 12.50%
    20 months 68.00% 12.50%
    21 months 70.00% 12.50%
    22 months 72.00% 12.50%
    23 months 74.00% 18.75%
    24 months 76.00% 18.75%
    25 months 78.00% 18.75%
    26 months 80.00% 25.00%
    27 months 81.00% 25.00%
    28 months 82.00% 31.25%
    29 months 83.00% 31.25%
    30 months 84.00% 31.25%

    If you want me to run numbers at 15 months, 16 months, 17 months, 18 months, 19 months, you can just say the median. You need to say the mortality rates at each month, otherwise your numbers are #$%$.

    If you notice, not a single patient in Phase I out of the 16 patients died prior to 15 months. The odds of that happening by chance alone is like flipping a coin 16 times and getting heads each time. Or, you can say that the chances are 1 in 2 to the 16th power, or 1 in 65,536 against. And if you think that they cherry picked in Phase I, look at the MRIs. See the tumors that go across both hemispheres of the brain!!!!! You can't tell me that this kind of patients has a high survival rate.

    If you actually understand medicine and how oncologists think, you will realize that their won't be a single oncologist that won't be giving the vaccine to their patients with the correct immunotype. It will very quickly become the standard of care.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Disco - your enrollment figures - are these estimates from the presentation chart or actuals that were reported in CCs?

    • disco,maybe you posted but did you have a chance to run your model based on sfnsurgsen's info (3-30months %) ?
      thanks

    • Thanks! If I read this right, you may have counted a few extra people, but in my opinion they were probably towards the end of enrollment and probably won't have a big effect on your results.

      As you probably already figured out I disagree that you need mortality rates at each month to try to run different scenarios. But of course if you have that information, it is probably better.

      • 1 Reply to bdoglo
      • Well, doing a Monte Carlo is going to naturally smooth things out. And that is of course what you are doing. But logically, patients don't live 100% for 12 months, then 40% of them die at the 12 month period. That is my critique of some of these analysis. Still, I like how the Monte Carlo analysis provides a standard deviation. If the standard deviation is 1.2 months (I think that's what you said in the other post), then we are 2 standard deviations away from the mean at this point (95% Confidence Inteval), which is quite useful in drawing a conclusion. Perhaps I will download a program that provides Monte Carlo analysis to provide a standard deviation as well, but I would like to run another spreadsheet based upon a 17 months median OS, if sfnsurgsen can get me the numbers from 15-30 months survival. For what it's worth though, his numbers assume 62% survival at 12 months and my numbers assume a 63% survival, so I am not sure how much more conservative those numbers are. I guess we will have to run the spreadsheet and see.

    • Your figures above assume 14.6 months OS for the control arm. Pls run the same logic with the assumption of 17-19 months OS for the control arm, so we know our safety margin. Many thanks.

    • lol you have too much free time.

      but on a serious note, if you have taken so much time to do this and think about the study then you should be able to come up with a negative comment about IMUC and this study.

      tell us the other side of a story. you want to give us the good side, then give us the bad. and the bad with the good.

      • 1 Reply to troublesacomin
      • You want to know the bad? We won't be able to get 64 dead patients this year. If the vaccine works this well, we simply do not have enough control patients to reach 64 deaths in a timely fashion. It's just not going to happen. The numbers which the company has provided us are conservative. We didn't want 32 deaths to happen before we thought. We will be dependent on a conversation with the investigator centered around what kind of numbers they require to stop the trial. We will need to discuss labeling and manufacturing and post-approval trials. We will know for certain that ICT-107 works, but with only 32 deaths it will be a very crude survival curve. We will need post-approval studies. The good news about this is the recent news about ICT-140. The fact that they scheduled that trial as a Phase IIa means that the FDA has already conceeded that they don't view these vaccines as a significant risk. That conception needs to be parlayed into convincing them that it will take too long to reach 64 deaths with these kinds of survival ratios and thousands will die of GBM in the meantime. I suppose you can always try to convince the FDA to do another analysis at 48 deaths (3/4s).

    • nice work duck!!!! funny thing is i am here mainly because of the cancer stem cells most do not realize that this treatment can be used with all other treatments due to imuc targeting the stem cells. win win chicken dinner glta

      • 1 Reply to mhartitz
      • Just one little semantic correction that I want people to be aware of - the last line "Total Dead if control SOC & ICT-107 works the same" is based on assuming that the control patients OS is 14.6 months with the graph on the company website and ICT-107 functioning as it did in Phase I. As you are aware, exact survival numbers based upon 16 patients just don't exist. As you can see, this is based on not a single patient dying before 15 months. This may have happened with 16 treated patients, but it would be surprising if not a single treated patient died out of 83 treated ICT-107 patients. So if the vaccine works the same as it did in Phase I, I can see June being a little more realistic.

        Notice the final ratio of control dead to ICT-107 dead - 25/26 deceased control out of 41 control patients to 6/7 deceased ICT-107 out of 83. If we get numbers that good in June/July, the FDA could easily stop this trial!!

 
IMUC
0.94-0.03(-3.08%)12:36 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.