Folks, I've been an active LONG investor in the following for the past several years: IMUC, NBS, GALE, and ARNA, and had a very small long position in CLSN prior to the release of negative Ph III results. Yes, I did do my DD, but at the same time, I was not 100% there! This explains my small position. But I was one of those who did get caught up into all of the so-called proposed positive data that one person that appeared to be long, but was indeed a short (he disappeared immediately once bad news was released). No need to say his yahoo name, since it has been mentioned many times on this board. My point is, in bio-tech, you have to fully understand the science in order to place a sound position in any particular stock. However, what else one can one do... For those who are pushing the science toward a long position, you can arrange to meet face-to-face (or minimally, a TC). This way, you have placed a face with a name. This is exactly what several of us have done around 2010 when ARNA was having issues with FDA. I have met Dr. Dan, who is one well-respected ARNA contributor, as well as PhillyDan, and many others. I, along with those mentioned, and countless others, have been the non-corporate fighting force for ARNA. With this approach we have all built a large network of trust... On ARNA, you can find me as either keithearle33 or keithearlybird33. Please, I am not here to “pub” ARNA, but to show you an example in order to get around any trust issues…
My point is, be extremely careful who you take information from on these boards. If a person is strongly willing to share information, they should be also strongly willing to have a face-to-face. You may say that will formulate a large expense for travel, hotel, etc...; however, just think of the enormous amounts of investment funds one can potential lose when solely reading yahoo message boards for sound investment making decisions.
Again, bio-pharm (bio-tech) is the most complexed investment sector on Wall Street and encircling yourselves with sound and trustworthy individuals, along with having a good understanding of the science, can help you minimize investment risk.
I have more that 20 years in Pharmaceutical Research and Discovery (Product Development) and I am still learning daily about Wall Street’s convoluted bio-tech investment system.
Good Luck to All Longs...
Sentiment: Strong Buy
just to add a few thoughts: the user you mentioned used several different aliases. Weird enough, I 'ran into' teh same guy a few years back on the ANDS forum. Was able to id his style and obviously id one of his alias right on the spot. He was able to create a 'fan-club' within his own user id's and sucker in others. so just be careful thats all.
I don't have nearly as much trial experience as you and the little I had was nearly 20 years ago. Since then I've worked professionally as an analyst in biotech and mining, then on my own since 9/11. The one thing that I've learned is that one can do all the calculations, map out the "probable" conclusions but it takes the smallest of unforeseen circumstance to change everything (Murphy's Law :) ). This is not to say that it's not an valid pursuit, sometimes it works out. Sometimes it's close enough to be of value but it always teaches you something. In the end - it's worthwhile. I've found, at least with the way I invest, that if I have a "batting average" over .275, I can stay in the majors.
I appreciate Disco's hard work, if it weren't for this phking blizzard, I would've had a chance to dig into it (the work, not the snow), soon I hope -GLTA
I would be willing to share IDs with maybe a few of you guys if you wanted to do a Skype session or something. We could do the spreadsheet together if you want. I don't want everyone and their mother to know my real name, but for some of the people that have been on here for a while I suppose that's okay.
Thank you, Evsworld, of your words of wisdom... Please, I am not speaking badly of Disco's work, as I have followed some of it as well, and will continue to dissect his hard work. However, what I am saying, we must form a very sound group of trustworthy investors. Once that body is formed, and we are able to professionally debate on KNOWN information and trust is there, only the very best can come from such forum. We should not put trust in one individual, but a sound body of many. I too will not say I am an innovator in the field, but I do have some drug development (mostly nonclinical), to include regulatory and CMC experience in oncology and several other areas of drug development (indications). I have worked with FDA first-hand, and I am willing to re-open a medical text book, re-open basic cancer immunology books and manuscripts, in order to gain SOME valuable information. Again, in bio-tech, investing in this area is a life commitment! Also, yes, some luck is needed in this sector…
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I agree with the above comments and I too lost a small amount on Celsion. I feel there is a little more data regarding the avg. survival regarding these patients compared to Celsion patients and thus it should be a little easier to predict with models. I do realize that this can backfire for a number of different reasons and one does have to be careful. I do happen to believe in IMUC and immunotherapy in general. I feel it will extend the lives significantly for cancer patients and early investors will be rewarded.
Since you stated that you have experience in Discovery product developement what are your thought on SSH?
Thank you, Nostradomus33, for your response. Honestly, I have not looked at SSH and will need some time to review and understand their technology. I tend to keep my small cap selection of investment stocks to maybe 5-6 companies. However, if you give me say one-month, I will be able to provide you with my most sound well-balanced analyses. Please honor me this time and I promise to respond accordingly.
Regarding, IMUC, GALE, NBS, I too believe we are on a new path of treating unmet medical needs, and they is truly something special with these bio-techs. Again, I am not pushing my selection on anyone, but obviously, time will indeed tell the entire story. And I strongly believe last 2013 and beyond, we will begin to see a movement away from the use of small new molecular drugs, toward cell-based therapeutics. NBS is currently working with FDA to develop drug development guidelines as we speak.
Medically speaking, the dendritic cell-based immuno-therapy sector makes complete sense, and I too want to become a part of history. For years, medical scientists have known the dendritic cellular approach was key; however, its connection to Natural Killer T-cell function was not completely understood. Now we know… We know now magnification of NK cells in number and potency is the missing link needed to destroy “early tumor growth”. Furthermore, when you have the Pope attempting to redirect the thought process of the church's body regarding stem cell therapy (not to be taken lightly, and is key), along with "key" early positive result in areas of pharmaceutical development/medical research using the body's own immune system, as well as extension of good quality of life in patients with malignant brain cancer, or sound Phase II data inhibiting the re-occurrence of aggressive HER 2 breast cancer, along with sound immuno-detection assays that provide further evidence that something positive is happening, as a medical researcher, I have to follow the science and not folks pushing the stock.
My advice to you, beware of companies that use the immuno-cellular approach with late stage cancer growth. Until scientists learn more, this approach should only be used in either very early stage, non-metastatic tumor growth, or recently resected mono-tumor growth. The immuno-therapeutic approach is not there as yet.
Again, I shall get back with you within the next 4 weeks.
Sentiment: Strong Buy