By "Magic moment" I mean--what is the date that money might start pouring in if the 32nd event hasn't yet occurred or been announced? Usually the big investors have algorythms about when the interim analysis has reached a stasticical safe zone, implying a high likelihood of efficacy of the drug tested.
It seems to me that we're getting close to that date. Is it May 1st?
its really frustrating and heartbreaking to look at all the fake traders get into imuc looking for a short term score.
this company you are buying represents a possible treatment for gbm not widgets. these are people with serious problems.
really tired of the idiots looking for the interim report or talking about the little daily increase/decrease on zero news.
i tell you what, when the interim data comes, i hope you get what you deserve.
And you're an idiot if you invest or trade with your heart. I hope you were a CLSN investor. The market is about making money, if you want to help people, go join the Peace Corps or something. Better yet, how about donating all your holdings to the Red Cross. What a freaking moron!
I agree with anothonymitchellx pretty much. End of May should be a safe bet. Less than 3% chance of zero efficacy with 20.8 mo OS. And the most likely survival benefit at that point assuming 20.8 mo SOC is close to 29 mos. Note I use 20.8 instead of 18.8 to be more conservative since the 18.8 is 2005 numbers for fully resected patients. Those results might lead to early approval (after Phase II).
I calculated that 32 deaths would have happened in January based on the OS numbers that you gave me for 18.8 months OS, which by the way assumes that 100% of the patients are fully resected. The company even told you that they calculated that 32 events would happen by Q1 based on a placebo group surviving 18.8 months and a 9 month survival advantage in 80% of the treated group. They even said (it is still recorded) that that is as much color as they can give you.
You know I was perfectly willing to be conservative and say that 14.6 months might be a little low, but at this point, I think you are trying to fabricate reasons why ICT-107 might not work. Like maybe if I twist my head a certain way and freak stuff happens....
It seems like people are just pushing back the dates arbitrarily the further we go and longer we go without getting 32 deaths. Do you remember when we said that 32 events could happen in Q4 2012?
its 12 patients per quarter enrolled continously...that means you have some hoops to jump through to model for the overall survival if it was just linear it would be easy
june is optimal in my view
I think you are right on the mark here using the 20.8 months, survival benefit according to studies in the last few years have shown even better survival than 20.8 months, more like 21+. You need to take into account (depending which articles you read) the lag time in reporting the 32nd event. Need to give it at least a month before it gets to IMUC. So again, I dont believe we were mislead when IMUC CEO let slip that they expected that event to be in the late first quarter/early second quarter. I may be way off base ( I doubt it) but it seems to me the explanation why the PPS is stuck in the mid $2 range. No one yet has any clue if this clinical trial will show a significant benefit, and its highly unlikely that a P3 will not be needed.