I’m thinking about the other side of the trade, because I haven’t seen anybody else write about it.
Just thinking about if IMUC tanks when that interim data is released. I just want people to understand that even if the interim news is good -waaaaaay too many people know about the interim and are waiting for that potential catalyst.
So you have retail waiting to unload into that announcement. Also, last week IMUC filed that 8-k signaling an agreement with Cantor to sell a boatload of shares over time and I’m sure they are also waiting for the announcement to unload shares.
Now I’m thinking this interim is going to be similar to HZNP and AMRN FDA approval day back in July when everyone expected a positive result.
Well not that bleak but you should get the point that even bad things can happen to share price even when good news comes out and especially if everyone is waiting for the catalyst.
If IMUC tanks and I say If, this would be another good spot for the longs to get shares cheap while traders cry and run for the exits.
That's my key point but i also don’t want to see any crying on the board lololol when the data comes and shares do not appreciate like shareholders are expecting, because the other side of the trade has been brought up.
I don't see that happening. There hasn't been retail hype for this stock.
I expect the opposite. Institutional investors will come in once interim is out of the way. That's what they often do--such as the Baker Bros. For example, they invested in SNTA after their most recent interim analysis, which helped fuel the price rise there...
AGAIN, it WONT be interim DATA. No data or information will be released at 32 events!
They will simply say "32 events have occurred, patient safety is not a concern, the trial will continue"
Thats it. Dont expect anything more.
No problem taking the sell side. I love this technology and have high hopes for the company. The news could certainly be sold, but how high will it go before news? The share price was approaching $4 last July and even in September it was sitting around $3.50 - before CEO resigned mysteriously. Given that, I am hoping we approach $3 before announcement, although with each passing day I become less confident of that....
Like you said, depending on how long we have before the news hits, but $3 doesn’t seem like a big deal because we’ve all seen IMUC make .20 to .30 jumps in a day here in the last few weeks on zero news.
On a side note, yeah I read something about personal problems concerning Manish Singh and management but that was just rumor. The Singh incident really didn't do anything to share price over a few weeks, it dipped something like 50 cents but recouped that dip before last years offering I really haven't thought about it really.
Ha ha ha, how about a bunch of people with just 1k or just 100 shares all decide to close out their positions on a certain day because a catalyst they were waiting for doesn’t pan out?
I’m looking at IMUC’s average volume around 600k so its not going to take a lot of shares to really move its price in one day. 3-4 times the daily volume could really move shares.
A similar way of looking at it would be the Shane Blackmon nonsense day from which I believe occurred from retail investors dumping their small amount of shares. Those hundred/ few hundred blocks snowballed into something that destroyed stop losses, tanking that other stock.
but overall, I'm just thinking about if the situation should occur.
Yes, buy on the rumor, sell on the news. If IMUC went up a lot on the certainty of good news, then it came, retail would want to exit to cash on profits. However, my read is that while retail seems to be posting and anticipating good news, its actually a small segment that has been willing to buy on this. The volume would have to be like 10 mil - 15 mil shares in a day. But since the news does not occur on one specific day and it is spread out over many days, people cannot buy on the anticipation of news on a certain. Even on this board among those that might seem like they know what they are talking about and would be bullish based on the date of interim analysis, there is debate for some strange reason about how long the placebo group could live in the trial. Never in my life would I think it possible for their to be debate about how long a GBM patient would live receiving the SOC. Yet for some reason, many bulls on this board are cautiously predicting that the average of all people control patients in this trial would live significantly longer than someone who would have a 100% fully resected tumor. For the most part, these types of GBM do exist, but are quite rare. GBM always comes back (with the SOC) and in most hospital situations, the average patient lives like 10 months, not even 14.6 months, let alone the 18.8 months OS in trials among 100% fully resected patients. Yet even the bulls, or current holders posting are assuming that the average patient is living significantly longer than that. If that was really the case, then FDA would have to analyze the habits of all patients in this trial to explain why in a controlled trial with patients receiving the standard of care that the average patient has lived over 24 months. After all, how is it (if the placebo + SOC group) that a patient group could live that long with GBM? What the hell are they doing to these patients? Because, whatever it is, it would have to become the new SOC anyway.
Yeah, I’m just throwing that out as an option, I really don’t know how IMUC shares are going to react to the interim. People on the board know I’m long IMUC, so of course I’d like it to go well but just in case, I’m putting this out there to see what people think and to maybe recognize a possible buying opportunity if the stock performs accordingly when the interim comes. I’d rather discuss it on the board now instead of seeing panicking or people not having a clue as to why IMUC shares aren’t doing so well when the interim comes out.
Disco - so let me express my opinion on a few of your points...
I would assume that most of us that are here on the MB have already bought our shares and I know I don't plan on buying anymore just because I don't want to put too many eggs in one basket - I do not believe we will see any major moves until either the news gets out to retail investors in a big way (read - positive P2 results) or more institutions start buying. I personally don't see any major jump if/when the DSMB says to continue the trial (the chatter of $1-$2 per share increase once announced is not practical in my opinion.)
From what I have seen 18.8 OS is a reasonable expectation, but the shape of the curve is VERY important – just model one like the one I put in the other thread (it is 17 OS I believe so you would need to adjust for that to make it 18.8 but you will see that it makes a BIG difference.) ….And honestly I would rather be very conservative in my model to reduce the likelihood of me investing foolishly. I assume you have invested in bios before – the placebo effect is VERY real and very powerful and has “ruined” many a trial and investor. I respect your knowledge (based on the posts I have read of yours) and would like to have an open discussion about what is the best curve – that way we both and others benefit.
This isn't to say that I think its safe to model what happens in the standard hospital (like 10 month OS), this is to say that I find myself incredulous thinking that someone attempting to be rational could indeed come to that conclusion, with complete disregard as to what would be the significance if that could indeed happen. The average patient has lived like what, 24 months now?