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ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. Message Board

  • jet_powered_chicken jet_powered_chicken Apr 30, 2013 7:21 AM Flag

    JET: Cap vs. Improvement

    $125mm market cap. End of April now when the end of Q1 was company's estimated milestone for events showing 9 months improvement. 1 month improvement for every week. 4 weeks have passed. So that's over a year improvement in GBM for $125mm cap. Sweet.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • the drug obviously works for 16 random people...when you expand it to the larger population its really hard to say what antigen frequency would occur

    • Hi jet,i am long imuc since 2yrs.can you larify 1 month improvement for every week..i am really cofused

      • 1 Reply to ramanareddy109
      • Hi ramanareddy,
        What I mean by a month per week is this.

        Several of us have developed models based on the enrollment data which is available. Those models approximate the number of deaths you could expect during the course of the trial based on varying survival curves. We know about what is expected for the control group within a range and we can approximate when 32 events would occur given different months of advantage over the control group. The company also has run scenarios and has stated that a 9 month advantage over an 18.8 month control group survival should produce 32 events by the end of Q1 of this year. My model mimics this estimate. My model allows me to vary the curve by month and I have approximated that each Month that goes by before we reach 32 events means about 4 months added to the overall survival benefit. Hence, a month per week. This is, of course, an estimate based on many things.

        The key points are that the trial is past the date where the company expected to be if they were showing a 9 month advantage over their expected control group survival, and that the longer we wait, the better that advantage should be.

        By the way, the point where we would have expected 32 events with no advantage was back in January.

        JET

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • If the benefit thus far in the trial were ONLY a month (or even less), the FDA would still say to continue the trial after they look at the interim data after 32 deaths. They could rationalize that perhapsthe benefits in the treated group might show up later on.
      So at this late stage I see virtually no chance that the FDA would end the trial due to futility.

 
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