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ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. Message Board

  • carlrich carlrich May 19, 2013 7:48 PM Flag

    A novice's question

    I've been with IMUC quite some time and have read all reasonable posts, especially those relating to the modeling of 32 events. What if the 32 events are occurring randomly in both the test and control samples and that 107 is providing no additional benefit. I understand it passed Ph 1 with its small sample. Further, SOC is actually working better than it has in the past. Is this at all a possibility? If not, why?

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    • There are some underlying assumption behind any and all modeling. One is that the patients treated with SOC will survive 18.8 month on average. Secondly, if ICT 107 provided no benefit, the 32 events would have occurred by now. These are of course assumptions made without access to the actual data. Even with full access to the data the DMC will need four weeks or more to fully analyze the data. In other words we can use all kind assumptions based on statistics, but they are not definitive. If they were, we would not need P2. The models are good to predict likely benefit of ICT 107 and the longer it takes for the 32 events to take place the better are the odds for favorable outcome for ICT 107. However, until the 32 events take place and it is followed up by favorable analysis, there is a significant uncertainty about the long term success of ICT 107. P2 is of course not a guarantee, it only a milestone, albeit a very important one.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Retiger's response not particularly helpful.

      But, tigerace's response is. If I understand you correctly, you seem to be implying that 107 has not yet reached that point (32 events) where a significant difference in efficacy is showing its effect. If it were, the pps would be a lot higher. Pps hasn't moved much in weeks and would support this view.

      But, this seems counter to all the modeling that people have been doing. They suggest that 107 is showing its efficacy since we haven't reached 32 events and with every passing week another month of efficacy (or survival) is added. If this were the case, one would think the pps would respond by moving up.

      What's going on here?

    • Your question sounds like: What's going to happen If tomorrow morning the Sun rises from the west instead of from east?
      The answer is simple: it won't happen in next millions and millions years. If it does happen, that is the end of the world!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • answer to your question is yes, definitely possibility. what supports that conclusion? Simple, the price per share. True investors know the relevance of time passing and no 32 events, if we were at a time where not reaching 32 made a significant difference in efficacy of 107, the price of this stock would be significantly higher.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to tigerace8
      • True investors know the relevance of time passing and no 32 events, if we were at a time where not reaching 32 made a significant difference in efficacy of 107, the price of this stock would be significantly higher.

        Exactly tigerace8! You can do all the mathematical modeling you want and it can tell you what you wish for.......................but there are plenty of GBM experts out there and they have friends you know. Friends with money even! And they have not made their move yet. So one must conclude that efficacy has not been ascertained and that there is considerable risk yet.

 
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