if I am so very stupid being long and you're so smart and dead sure please feel free to short :)
just wait why do not you short a little later, maybe one month later ? not now. it is even a better short a month or two later ...:)
They say "volume precedes price" and the volume has been very good lately. I think we see a nice jump in the near future. PPS seemed to hold up well with the overall market selling off late today which was also encouraging to see.
I believe the risk reward ratio is something like that maybe a little more on the downside...I also believe that there is no way that this vaccine has no benefit over the control arm even if the DMC has been sitting on it for 6 weeks now. I am pretty sure there is no safety issue given the nature of this vaccine, there is nothing to worry about that.
I know there is still substantial risk regarding P2 vs. P3 approval and the whole timing of 64 deaths but I go for that risk. If a P3 is needed they might partner with a big pharma or the share price would still go up enough to avoid significant dilution. I have built up a pretty significant stake here. If l lose I just go back where I was before ARNA and KERX and can start all over again. This is a calculated risk.