I have made multiple posts about risk/reward. If one is making an investment with funds they can spare and live without than the reward is worth the risk. I repeat that I could have exited with a 300% profit and declined to do so. If we hit it will be big and a failure would drive the stock to about .90. That's where I purchased most of my holdings. Therefore, I have little risk. Every investor has a different story. My answer is the best #1.
life is never simple. you are asking stat guys to be simple, never going to happen.
better question is what is the risk reward ratio over the next 12 mths. 50% downside to 400% upside. 50 50 chance of either