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ImmunoCellular Therapeutics, Ltd. Message Board

  • nickdidomenico nickdidomenico Jun 11, 2013 11:59 AM Flag

    Hey Disco / Jet - looks like someones model is kicking out a poor outcome.

    no other reason for the pull back.

    what does yours now show.

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    • Nothing bad has happened. I don't know if there was an ATM today or the blacklist on selling shares has been removed. The stock price has fallen because of all of the following reasons:

      1) Phase II efficacy is less than Phase I and has not been explained as to how or why to date
      2) An offering has been planned and all the buyers already jumped in yesterday - whether or not it has been taking place - I do not know
      3) If the share blacklist has been removed, I do not yet know of any insider buying yet
      4) I had correctly predicted this date of announcement based on the fact that I anticipated that a 75% fully diluted population is probably high in spite of what was said two CCs ago (how confident are you in taking that to the bank? - If I am not confident that we have less than 75% fully resected patients, how confident should everyone else be?)

      My model predicts an OS for ICT-107 of 32-33 months based on an 18 month OS for the placebo. You don't need a 14.6 month OS for this to be a blockbuster, but I would like to have confirmation of less than a 75% fully resected patient population. If you could find that out, you would be a hero. Kindly refrain from creating spamming posts so that people can know what the important questions are that need to be asked. If we are lucky, maybe someone will ask and post the answers. But if we keep diluting the content of the message board with this, it detracts from what is important. I don't necessarily want to post every day during the day, but if you have any specific questions, send me an email or contact me on Yahoo messenger if I am on. If I am not on Yahoo messenger, just ask and I will try to appear there.


    • Something is going on here and it aint pretty! Cant believe the down volume! I think there must be something seriously wrong with the models put forth by disco, jet power, etc.............. There must be some assumption made here thats flawed. Glad Im evenly split between IMUC and NWBO. Maybe IMUC wont be the big winner but hopefully will mature into something over the next 3-4 years.

    • This is an readout from my sim showing expected dates for both the 32 and 64 month milestones based on a variety of different control group survivals and trial group ADVANTAGES.

      As you can see, there is not a combination that would yeild both a 2nd quarter 32 event milestone and a 64 event mile that is in the same year.

      SIMPLY PUT, WHAT GOT US TO HERE WON'T GET US TO THERE BEFORE DECEMBER. This is particularly true as you trend towards a higher control group survival.

      CTRL TRIAL 32 64
      14.6 9 JAN13 SEP13
      14.6 12 FEB13 NOV13
      14.6 16 MAR13 JAN14
      14.6 24 APR13 MAR14
      14.6 34 MAY13 JUN14

      17.0 9 FEB13 JAN13
      17.0 12 MAR13 MAR14
      17.0 16 APR13 MAY14
      17.0 20 MAY13 JUL14

      18.8 9 MAR13 MAR13
      18.8 12 APR13 APR14
      18.8 16 MAY13 JUN14

      Since we expect that the actual occurence was in Q2, the results are clearly quite good. It is the timing of those results that will take a while.

    • Really .. no other reason?? Seriously ?? I can think of 10 reasons other than that...

    • The reason is selling from short term traders hoping for a stop due to efficiency and programm trading and shorts are adding to the pressure. I hope they pressure some more so I can add to my position.

0.4255+0.0055(+1.31%)Dec 1 4:00 PMEST