I got in at $2.80 and then doubled down at $1.00 because I didn't think the preliminary Phase 2 results were all that bad. Only time will tell and I look at this as more of a bet than an investment as the stock price is totally dependent on where the data go as the trial progresses. Could be a total flop or a huge success but I do think that many way over reacted to the preliminary data.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Still here. The topline ph. II results did not really surprise me (see my previous posts on this board), given the need for time and subgroup analysis to reveal the therapeutic value of these agents. In fact, the results here mirror or at least parallel the interim results for all similar drugs. The game is not over -- or if it is, the startling results for IMUC's phase I , as well as the equally encouraging results on NWBO, GALE, CLDX, BMY, MRK, etc were all "cooked." If you don't grasp the science, believe people are crooks or (like the shorts) have an agenda, you bail out at the first sign of trouble. I've read ALL of the studies, don't think Yu, et all are crooks (though Ph. II WAS badly designed) and believe IMUC will right the ship. Keep this in mind: these drugs are designed to help the immune system recognize CA, whereas the anti-inhibitor drugs (cf. BMY, MRK), are meant to unleash the immune system. In my view, it will take a combination of the two approaches to actually cure cancer -- this assuming the genetic characteristics of the tumor cells are known and properly targeted.
Here, holding for more than a year, got more at .70. It may take time, but I think most investors over reacted on phase 2 results. When it goes to phase 3 will pop again. Good things come to those who wait........
I'm out. Had to sell short. I panicked. Perhaps made an amateur mistake. Hope next week is better for all who stayed. Meanwhile I'll have to make my money elsewhere.
What makes you think this will pop up?
Sorry to hear that.
When you ask an opinion of someone, it helps to know their background. Hard to know that on a message board. However, I feel my background is particularly well-aligned to assess the situation and come to my conclusion. Bottom line, my opinion is in-line with management.
The objective of a phase 2 study is to explore your therapeutic intervention, learn of its attributes and get to phase 3. The downfall of ICT-107 was that it didn't help patients uniformly. Rather, some responded in a fantastic way and others didn't respond. In retrospect, its easy to see why their first study readout was doomed to fail (or show minimal benefit). But I feel that all future read-outs will show incrementally better data. What management needs to do is figure out why some respond and some don''t. If they can do that, they will be big winners. With all of that said, I cannot see any reason why the FDA would not permit a phase 3. This event alone (forget about any improved data readouts) will cause the price to pop. And we should know that by June.
That's my reasoning. If phase 3 is coming, they will likely seek out a partnership (versus a large offering). I will probably reduce my stake after the FDA decision point is reached.