Washington state's marijuana consultant says revenue estimates of how much money legalization can bring have been way off.
In an interview with public affairs channel TVW on Thursday, consultant Mark Kleiman said several factors like competition from the #$%$ market, illegal sales and high prices are likely to affect the demand for the planned legal source of marijuana.
Initial estimates said the state could bring more than $400 million a year from the marijuana market.
Kleiman leads the Massachusetts-based BOTEC Analysis Corp., which the state picked this month to help legalization. The voter-approved legalization tasks the state with regulating crops and stores of marijuana.
Kleiman says that if the state sees $100 million in revenue during the first fiscal, it would be a good start.
The thing is though that sales WILL reach initial estimates and beyond. At first the illegal sales will compete but eventually that becomes a non issue. Just like with moonshine, bootleggers still sold after prohibition ended. But eventually moon shining at a competitive level disappeared. Still today you can find moonshine, but 99.9999 of the people would not take the risk or bother.
The market will grow immensely and the cartels are going to have to find another way to create revenue. Now revenue can stay domestically and taxes can help children, schools, infrastructure, etc.
Would you rather buy a tested standardized edible from a facility following FDA guidelines or trust a product from a cartel? Most will choose the latter. MJNA for a win.
OLYMPIA — Washington’s new pot consultant, Mark Kleiman, said Thursday night the state will probably bring in less than half of the $450 million a year estimated in tax revenue from marijuana sales.
Mark Kleiman, recently named at the state’s first marijuana consultant as regulators work on rules for production, sale and taxing of pot, said in an interview on the Washington state public affairs network TVW Thursday night that the $450 million estimate in revenue was the “top range” by the state Revenue Department.
It’s more likely there will be a total of $450 million in total sales, he said.
“Maybe 40% will come back as (tax) revenue,” he said. “And that’s in a steady state. I would think in the first year … I think if they could bring in $100 million that year, they would be doing good work.”
But Kleiman said what makes any estimates troublesome is that the state must consider the illicit marijuana market and the #$%$ market.
“Any revenue market depends on people coming to the licit (legal) market and not the illicit market,” he said, adding that it’s possible the pricing of the legal marijuana will be “uncompetitive."
The new pot czar is being smart of giving a 250 million dollar estimate for his state alone. Much better to low ball a prediction and have the government impressed the taxes come in higher. Smart move to give a lower estimate now. The year will see he was underestimating and he will be given kudos for tripling his prediction. I would say 500 million for the large and socially approving state. In reality billions per state seems possible easily in time but I going to go around saying that if the stock stagnated at 50 dollars in two years or much less rather how I really feel that it will surpass apple stock. People may buy a three hundred iPod every other year but the will pay on average200-300 a month for moderate use of infused edibles and other products.