I think once POT or one of those company said, they just produce as much as need to satisfied the demand, so they can keep the price high. If India cutting back, it make sense they cutting back on production. However it could backfire on India, if India just tried to used the cutback like a negotiation tactic. If India need potash and eventually will need to buy more, there will be higher demand for less product which will push up price.
Higher prices is ok as long as there is enough demand to absorb the higher prices. I like to see higher prices but if it is impacting farmers ability to purchase the potash it isn't good for the market. I am long POT but being cautious.
time will tell, I'll save you the time. The market is telling you something is wrong, the stock is cascading and most likely headed to 35 then ultimately 30 the chart on the monthly looks terrible. Costs were rising for sulfur and ammonia which had an impact. the morgan stanley note for corn a few days cant be helping. i mean look at the volume it is pathetic on up days and then spikes higher on down days. CF the best in breed which has outperformed all the ag's is telling we r going lower. This stock has been acting horribly telling you it is heading considerably lower.