Looks as if the shelf life of your prediction proved to be short lived. The market has been rising but POT has been falling just about every day. Even on a day that the DOW hits its historic all time high, POT struggles just to remain positive. As far as the technical support you refer to, obviously $42 was not the level with the stock selling for $39 and change. It is ordinarily a waste of time and effort to predict where a stock is heading, especially if the call relates to POT and especially if the prediction is that the stock is heading skyward in the near term. Planting season is almost upon us. Big deal. Show me that the stock is responding. Until then, you might as well tell me that the sun will come out tomorrow.
The argument for increased potash demand proportionate to world crop demand from population growth and emerging economies still holds. So why has potash oversold? will pot oversell further? Two things i can see are 1. consumers in India and China are trying to use less or insufficient potash either to drive prices down or thinking its need is overstated in crop science. I also think pot has lost its takeover premium most stocks enjoy, since the takeover bid a couple of years ago was blocked by the Canadian government. Think the same thing dogged petrocanada (pcz) for years. in time potash should climb higher based on fundamentals. A third thing might be the threat of new supply and suppliers entry into the market. long term pot should do well but it could over sell further yet. glta
Should have said more accurately that potash has lost its potential takeover premium that is included in most stock prices by the market. If potash is off the market to potential suitors like bhp then that guess/chance premium is removed.So it looks like the market might be punishing the stock a bit for that reason, but in time should rebound to a rational price based on fundamentals. glta