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Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. Message Board

  • zombies_were_people zombies_were_people Mar 12, 2013 10:03 AM Flag

    52 week highs will be broken on this run up

    POT finally catching interest of institutions again.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • Are you sure it is catching institutional interest? The stock has been trending lower just about every day and even on the occasional day it rises slightly, it usually gives it all back the next day regardless of how the general market is doing. Let's face facts. POT has been among the worst performing stock during the last 18 months while most everything else has been rising. And my guess is that in the event we suffer another major market correction, this thing will head south big time. Those with less than a 5-10 year time horizon would do well to look elsewhere for profit. I wish it were otherwise. I note that I have stopped adding to my position.

      • 2 Replies to abbaman7
      • John, here is my take in response to your reply. The reason why I would expect POT to decline along with the rest of the market in the event of a correction notwithstanding that it hasn't really done anything in the last 18 months is that most stocks follow the market direction regardless of what the stock had been doing previously. So what we really would be looking for for POT to buck the downtrend would be some materially good news. I regret to say that under that scenario I would not be expecting any. Instead, I believe we would have the usual holdups with China and India and inventory drawdowns as opposed to build-ups on this side of the Atlantic. I am not selling no matter what but I would be quite shocked if POT were the stock to be holding in the event of a major market correction. Now to your subsequent inquiry regarding a small uptick in average potash prices next year. Thus far, notwithstanding that the January and February sales figures have shown YOY increases, the market has offered POT shares the back of its hand. The kind of pricing adjustment you mentioned would, I believe, be similarly ignored. Now what would not be ignored would be another significant increase in the stock yield and/or a stock buyback. With regard to the possibility of an acquisition of control of ICL, I am not sure how that would play. Right now, even in anticipation of a transaction that might never take place because Israeli ministers oppose it, ICL workers are already striking to demonstrate their opposition to such a takeover. My guess is that in the end, even though there are a few free market types in senior government positions and even though significant revenue to the nation might result from a sale, I expect Israel to turn POT down no matter what concessions POT offers although I would expect that they would not leave empty handed and would be allowed to augment their minority position. But that may not satisfy POT's management.

      • Hi Abbaman,

        Why would POT shares decline in a market correction, if they have not run up in the past 18 months?

        Also, what would a small $25/tone price increase in 2014 do for our POT shares? J

    • POT will fly if 50EMA can cross 200EMA. Biggest issue now is this market is setting up for a little correction soon.

    • Hope so. It has been a long wait.

25.95+0.18(+0.70%)Aug 28 4:05 PMEDT