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Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan Inc. Message Board

  • tfissber tfissber Apr 1, 2013 4:16 PM Flag

    Higher probability

    The technical indicator at foxchart website shows 82% chance up.

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    • Well I couldnt imagine much downside still existing because $39.50 to $38.50 has historically been the range of the lows for the stock. 0.3% of the stock trades daily on average, usually less. On about average daily volume this POS stock has fallen over the last two years about 40%. The question for those looking to get in or cover at lower prices is why would any more sellers materialize at lower prices than the current level? It looks like everyone has been shaken out of this and the hedge fund community of traders left this stock for dead a long time ago when the takeover didn't happen, so I cant imagine it has much more room on the downside, maybe a dollar or two. If fundamentals continue to deteriorate then possibly it could keep falling but with record crops (corn) getting planted it does not appear that demand for ferts is going away anytime soon. The tired old notion of the moronic traders that all the ferts should trade on corn prices is now finally showing it never had any merit. Farmers are planting record crops for the harvest and that requires more farm land and more ferts per acre which means higher volume of sales for the fertilizers. The "incentive" approach based on assumptions surrounding farmer economics based on corn prices is total speculation, always has been. Whether corn is at $3 or $7, the farmers will plant more if there is demand and under supply and plant less if supplies are lofty and demand is weak, very simple. We are now seeing that global demand remains high and the projections are high for corn plantings, partly caused by last years drought. Brazil continues to be the growth region and India has already taken a back seat in regards to volumes. Potash sales should be rather strong for this upcoming POT earnings. The market used to pay double for the EPS growth, it has been in wait and see mode for nearly 2 years refusing to pay up for decent earnings going forward, all while the company continues to double their dividend payments.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

16.57-0.16(-0.96%)May 27 4:05 PMEDT